Editor's Notes: * When there is high insider selling, high policy uncertainty, and unresolved debates around AI, volatility is guaranteed. The massive drop in gold and silver yesterday, along with the software sector derating following Microsoft’s earnings, represents the first wave of volatility—especially given reports that '
Editor's Notes: * A 10% decline for MSFT is a rare sight. We have been bearish on US software over the last few weeks newsletters, and sentiment has been building toward this point. Will we see trimmed CapEx and R&D at Microsoft or OpenAI? I don'
Editor's Notes: * Liquidity surge in Hong Kong was noticeable. This tends to lift up the big names in HSI. Good to see some consumer names in the up list (Mengniu, Tingyi). We are waiting to see if any real sense of China cyclical recovery. * "Most risk-on since
Editor's Notes: * Davos time. The heavy hitters came out in force. * Instead of our regular daily digest, we are doing a special letter synthesizing recent interviews with the top AI leaders: Satya Nadella at Microsoft (Jan 21), Demis Hassabis CEO of DeepMind (Jan 21) [my fav, if you
Editor's Notes: * When national policies dominate headlines, it is time to reduce exposure to regulatory-sensitive industries. * Recall the China playbook from 2019–2023. The US is increasingly mirroring those trends: aggressive industrial policy, abrupt regulatory pivots, and mounting populist pressure on affordability (healthcare, housing). Yesterday's healthcare
Editor's Notes: * China Awaiting a Spark Expectations have been high for a consumption recovery in China in 2026, but the recent stock price declines in Li Ning and Fuyao Glass suggest the market is losing patience. Investors in our network are reporting mixed signals regarding Chinese consumer behavior,
Editor’s Notes * Japan is working… until it isn’t. Equity inflows are still there, but the market is no longer blind to the fiscal side of the story. Rising JGB yields and unfunded policy promises are creeping into risk pricing, and that matters. If we see currency support or
Editor's Notes: * Why this sector matters right now: The Agriculture sector is starting to look like a genuine early-recovery setup. Protein demand is firmer than headlines suggest, inventories are tight, utilization is improving, and input costs have stabilized. The missing piece has been policy clarity, not fundamentals. * As
Editor's Notes: * The U.S. tape still feels “up,” but it’s a very specific kind of up. The rally on de-escalating trade headlines is real, but the market’s tolerance for surprises looks low. A slightly-hot PCE print and all the talk about “AI bubble” risk makes
Editor's Notes * The headline changed (again), but the signal didn’t. Even if the Europe tariff threat tied to Greenland gets toned down or paused, the bigger takeaway is the policy unpredictability premium that’s creeping into markets. What caught my eye was the flow-driven response from Europe
Editor’s Notes * Why now: Parts of the agriculture sector look close to a cyclical low after a prolonged period of weak commodity prices and pressured earnings. At the same time, underlying demand for food and ag-related assets has not gone away. For patient investors, this feels like a reasonable
Editor’s Notes * Today has that classic risk-off tape with an extra layer of “this could gap again”. The headline is Trump’s tariff threat on Europe tied to Greenland, but the real market signal was capital flow behavior, not the soundbites. A Danish pension fund walking away from U.