Editor's Notes * Keep an eye on the stealth "backdoor" AI bets that the market noise is currently drowning out. Zoom is effectively a call option on Anthropic's success, while Datadog is decoupling from the SaaS crash because autonomous agents actually require more infrastructure monitoring,
Editor's Notes * The ceasefire has completely flipped the macro script, shifting us from a stagflation scare to a massive, margin-boosting drop in oil. Since retail sentiment is still stuck in neutral, this short squeeze likely has more room to run before institutional desks start looking for an exit.
Editor's Notes * The Strait of Hormuz "blockade" looks like a headline scare rather than a physical reality, as real-time trackers show ships are still moving. With hedge funds sitting on a record 7.6:1 short ratio, any hint of de-escalation will likely trigger a massive
Editor's Notes * The AI growth story might be hitting an analog wall as electrical infrastructure replaces chip supply as the primary bottleneck. With nearly half of planned US data centers delayed by shortages in transformers and switchgears, the physical grid simply cannot keep pace with silicon production. * The
Editor's Notes: * US and HK markets were closed for Good Friday. Today's letter provides mainly an update on Japan. * Nidec had a good day (+4%). We profiled the company in mid-Dec and still think there's good upside from here, with hopefully more positive governance
Editor's Notes: * Geopolitics, liquidity, and risk appetite continue to dominate the market, leading to a short-term de-emphasis on fundamentals. This could be a good opportunity for stock picking if you have conviction and patience, or a time to de-risk by lowering your portfolio exposure. We have heard from
Editor's Notes * Don’t get blinded by the "Trump Peace Dividend" rally; While the indices are cheering for de-escalation, the Strait of Hormuz remains physically blocked, pushing us toward a literal helium exhaustion event for chipmakers and a catastrophic sulfur cliff for global fertilizer production. * We
Editor's Notes * Japan is making a massive, under the radar move toward technological self-reliance that every tech investor needs to track. Between cutting subsidies for BYD to protect Toyota and the Fujitsu initiative to build pure domestic AI chips via Rapidus, the country is clearly trying to break
Editor's Notes * We are closely tracking the "Software Abundance" thesis which suggests that AI is fundamentally destroying the traditional SaaS moat by making the marginal cost of code near zero. This shift from software scarcity to abundance explains why even solid earnings from giants like Salesforce
Editor's Notes * The first annual profit drop at BYD since 2021 is a loud signal that the domestic Chinese price war has reached a brutal knockout stage. While record sales volume continues to impress, the real story is the strategic shift to overseas markets where margins are actually
Editor's Notes * The AI Moat Crisis: The AI trade is hitting a "moat crisis" as software breakthroughs like Google’s TurboQuant begin to cannibalize hardware demand. If Anthropic’s new capabilities can automate security exploits for pennies, the seat-based pricing models for companies like CrowdStrike are
Editor's Notes * The End of "Buy the Dip": We are finally past the "buy the dip" era and into a base case of structural stagflation. With 40% of Gulf energy infrastructure hit and oil at $106, inflation is no longer just a tail risk.
Investment
Editor's Notes * The Pivot to Real Assets: We are seeing a massive shift where geopolitical tensions are forcing a move away from "fake assets" like software and financial instruments toward "real assets" like commodities. With oil prices potentially hitting $150 per barrel by April
Investment
Editor's Notes * The "Physical AI" Catalyst: If you caught Jensen Huang’s All-In interview, you know the narrative for telcos maybe just shifted. He’s reframing the entire sector as the "distributed AI grid" for the physical world. By adopting AI-RAN (AI-Radio Access Network)
Investment
Editor's Notes: * The SaaS pressure story is not new, but feels like market is reacting to it more seriously now. Before it was more like long-term concern, now it is hitting prices fast. If AI can replace workflows, then per-seat model becomes weaker. You can see money moving
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Right now the market feels very fragile to headlines, almost too sensitive. Small news, even just comments or posts, can move futures and oil very fast. It gives feeling that trading is less about fundamentals and more about reaction speed. The risk around Strait of Hormuz
Investment
Editor's Notes: This is the second part of the earnings summary for last week — I shared part 1 yesterday. * The biggest shift that stands out is how Chinese EV players are finally crossing into profitability, but in a very different way than before. It’s less about selling
Investment
Editor's Notes: * This is part 1 of our earnings recap from the past week. We’ll share part 2 tomorrow given just how packed the calendar has been. One thing that stands out right away: AI is no longer a side narrative, it’s embedded everywhere, but the
Investment
Editor's Notes: * The AI trade isn’t breaking, but it is running into real-world constraints at the worst possible time. Power and infrastructure have been known bottlenecks, but what’s changing is the pressure coming from regulation and geopolitics. The SMCI fallout makes it clear that enforcement risk
Investment
Editor's Notes: * The market is starting to internalize a pretty uncomfortable mix: AI is driving a new wave of demand-pull inflation (that $185B hyperscaler capex number keeps getting bigger), while geopolitics is reigniting cost-push pressures through energy. The Qatar LNG disruption is going to keep inflation expectations elevated
Investment
Editor’s Note * This is a genuinely useful read-through because it cuts through the AI hype and shows what’s actually monetizing today. What stood out to me from Tencent is that AI is already driving pricing, ad performance, and cloud profitability. That’s important context going into Alibaba earnings,
Investment
The current market sentiment reflects a convergence of geopolitical tensions, revised Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and evolving AI infrastructure demands. Key takeaways include concerns about stagflationary pressures impacting the Fed's policy, significant shifts in Japan's monetary policy, divergent growth trends in Hong Kong and China,
Investment
Editor’s Note * We’re firmly in a “compute over labor” market now. The shift is becoming hard to ignore — companies like Meta and NVIDIA are effectively reallocating from people to machines, and doing it at scale. What’s interesting is the market is still taking this in stride, even
Investment
Editor’s Note * This print really comes down to whether AI is starting to show real returns. For Alibaba, the focus is less on headline earnings and more on whether cloud growth and early monetization can justify the scale of investment. AI agents in particular are getting a lot of