Weekly Podcast Opinions (7D) - Jan 12, 2026

Editor's Notes:

• Below is a synthesis from 86 episodes of podcasts over the last 7 days.
• New geopolitical order (or Trump) and AI dominate discussions.
• Risk is rising - for regional conflicts, central bank politically-driven errors, tariff uncertainties, speed / magnitude of AI impact on job markets and populist policy reactions, etc.
• Among the stock picks - I love and own MELI too.

Key discussions noted include the geopolitical ramifications of the "Donroe Doctrine," a commodity supercycle driven by AI demand, and a critical inflection point in the AI sector focusing on memory and physical AI. Domestically, U.S. policies are disrupting housing and defense, while high-conviction stock pitches offer unique opportunities amidst a "jobless boom" and a challenged Federal Reserve.

1. Geopolitics & The "Donroe Doctrine"

The defining event of the year occurred on January 3rd: the U.S. military raid and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. While the news cycle focused on the tracks of the armored cars, seasoned investors are looking at the "Donroe Doctrine" (a Trump-era evolution of the Monroe Doctrine) which reasserts absolute U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere.

The Venezuelan Oil Mirage

The narrative that Venezuelan oil will immediately flood the market and crash prices to $50 is, according to most experts, a "pipe dream."

• The Reality: Venezuela produces roughly 800,000–900,000 barrels per day (bpd), less than 1% of global supply. Rebuilding its dilapidated infrastructure to reach its 1970s peak of 3.5M bpd will require $100 billion in investment and a decade of work.
• The "Chuck Norris" Premium: Marco Papic (BCA Research) identifies a new risk premium. The success of the "surgical strike" suggests the administration may repeat this in Iran or elsewhere. This "propensity to act" is keeping a floor under WTI, despite the bearish supply narrative.
• The Trade: Refiners with Gulf Coast footprints (e.g., Valero - VLO) are the primary winners as they are optimized for Venezuela’s "heavy sour" crude. Conversely, Canadian oil sands producers (Suncor - SU) are facing headwinds as their similar-grade crude faces a potential future competitor.

The Greenland Gambit

The White House has moved beyond rhetoric, refusing to rule out military force to acquire Greenland.

• Fact: The administration is eyeing rare earth minerals and hydroelectric power to secure the "periphery."
• Implication: This has pushed the NATO alliance to a breaking point. Denmark’s Prime Minister has explicitly stated that a U.S. move on Greenland would "mark the end of NATO." For investors, this increases the "Age of Empire" premium on defense and commodities.

2. The Commodity Supercycle: CTA Trend or Fundamental Shift?

We are seeing a rare alignment: Copper (+40% YoY), Silver (+142% YoY), and Gold (+60% YoY) are all pressing records.

The Fiat Denominator Trade

Alfonso Peccatiello suggests this isn't a commodity supercycle in the traditional sense, but a Financial Supercycle.

• Global Stimulus: Half of the G20 economies are implementing a primary fiscal impulse of >1% of GDP in H1 2026.
• Monetary Looseness: Despite inflation being 150bps above targets in the UK and Eurozone, real rates remain at or near neutral.
• The Contrarian View: While consensus is bullish on metals, Tom Hayes warns that commercials are record short on gold. Retail is chasing the "shiny object" at $4,400, but the smart money is hedging.

Doctor Copper’s AI Diagnosis

A new S&P Global study indicates copper demand will jump 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040.

• The Driver: AI data centers. An EV uses 2.9x more copper than an internal combustion engine, but a humanoid robot—the next phase of the AI race—is "heavily wired" with it.
• The Deal: The rumored Rio Tinto/Glencore merger (potentially a $200B+ behemoth) confirms that the majors are desperate for copper assets.

3. The "Everything AI" Inflection Point

CES 2026 marked the transition from Large Language Models (LLMs) to Physical AI and Robotics.

The New Bottleneck: Memory

For three years, the focus was GPUs. In 2026, the bottleneck is High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and Storage.

• The Price Shock: SK Hynix and Samsung are seeking price increases of 60-70% in Q1.
• The Fact: In a high-end AI rack, the cost of memory and storage will soon exceed the cost of the compute (GPUs).
• Stock Picks: Micron (MU) remains the cyclical leader, but ASML is the safer play as the "toolmaker" for the capacity expansion needed to fix the memory famine.

China’s AI IPO Wave

While U.S. AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic remain locked in private markets, China is using its public markets to finance the race.

• Performance: The Hang Seng outperformed the Nasdaq by 10 percentage points last year.
• Revival: Companies like MiniMax and MetaX (China's Nvidia) are seeing first-day pops of 500-700%.
• Investor Insight: China is offering more "price discovery" in AI than the U.S. right now.

4. Trump’s Domestic Policy: Disruption as a Tool

The President’s social media feed has become the primary source of industrial policy, often contradicting traditional market logic.

Housing: Banning "Wall Street Landlords"

Trump proposed a ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes (SFH).

• Impact: Large institutions own only ~3% of the SFH rental market (450,000 homes). The ban is viewed as more "populist politics" than sound economics.
• The Counter-Argument: Steven Scherr (Predium) argues that private capital actually de-risks housing starts by pre-buying 25% of new communities, allowing builders to break ground. A ban could inadvertently reduce supply.
• Fannie/Freddie QE: The order for GSEs to buy $200B in mortgage bonds has already pushed the 30-year fixed below 6% (5.99%). This is "Trumpitative Easing" (TE), bypassing the Fed to directly lower consumer borrowing costs.

Defense: The Buyback Ban

In a stunning move, the President signed an EO banning dividends and buybacks for defense contractors that fail to meet production timelines.

• The Target: Raytheon (RTX) was singled out.
• The Contradiction: Simultaneously, Trump called for a 50% increase in the defense budget ($1.5 trillion by 2027).
• The Trade: This creates a massive gap between "Old Defense" (Legacy Primes) and "New Defense" (e.g., Anduril, Joby Aviation). Investors should look for nimble, tech-native firms that don't rely on massive share repurchases to bolster EPS.

5. High-Conviction Stock Pitches

Exor NV (EXO): The Ferrari Arbitrage

Shawn O’Malley pitches Exor as the ultimate "half-off" play.

• The Thesis: Exor owns 20% of Ferrari, a stake worth more than Exor’s entire market cap.
• The Numbers: Exor trades at a 60% discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV) of €36 billion. You are essentially buying Ferrari at <20x earnings (vs. 40x for the direct stock) and getting Stellantis, Philips, and the Economist for free.
• Catalyst: Aggressive buybacks using a "Reverse Dutch Auction" mechanism to shrink the share count by 3% annually.

Mercado Libre (MELI): Beyond the "Amazon of LatAm"

Daniel Mahncke highlights MELI's "ridiculous" growth consistency.

• The Fact: Only public company to deliver >30% revenue growth for 27 consecutive quarters.
• The Edge: Unlike Amazon, MELI’s marketplace is not a loss leader; it has 20% take rates. Its logistics network, Mercado Envios, delivers 94% of packages through its own network.
• Valuation: Currently trading at its lowest EV/EBIT multiple ever (~30x), which is cheap given the 14% e-commerce penetration in Latin America (vs. 25-30% in the West).

Victoria PLC (VCP): The Levered Stub Play

Randy Baron presents a classic "spicy" value play in the UK.

• The Set-up: A flooring roll-up that saw its stock drop 95% from its COVID peak.
• The Hidden Floor: Koch Industries owns a large preferred stake. A "death spiral" conversion is capped by UK law at 29.9% ownership (Rule 9), meaning Koch cannot simply wipe out equity holders without a full takeover bid at a premium.
• The Upside: The company is cutting £80M in costs on a trough EBITDA of £115M. If the housing cycle turns even 5%, EBITDA jumps by £25M. This is a "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" special situation.

Life Vantage (LFVN): The Anti-GLP-1 Play

Tim Call (Capital Management Corp) identifies a micro-cap ($80M) value play.

• The Numbers: Trading at 8x earnings with 25% of its share price in net cash.
• Contrarian Angle: The market has sold off LFVN on fears that GLP-1 weight loss drugs will kill the nutraceutical industry. Call argues that LFVN’s focus on gut health and metabolism is actually complementary to the GLP-1 cycle.

6. The Macro Reckoning: A "Jobless Boom"?

The U.S. economy is currently operating in a state that defies traditional models.

• GDP vs. Hiring: The Atlanta Fed is tracking Q4 GDP at 5.6%, yet job growth is at its lowest level outside of a recession since 2003 (averaging ~50k/month).
• Productivity Surge: This is a "jobless boom." Companies are finding they don't need to hire low-skill workers because they are finally realizing productivity gains from the Cloud and early-stage AI.
• The Fed Under Fire: Fed Chair Jay Powell is openly fighting a DOJ probe after being served with grand jury subpoenas. This is an unprecedented challenge to Fed independence.
• Implication: If the Fed is "politicized," the Term Premium in the bond market will likely structurally move higher. Investors should favor the "short end" of the curve where the Fed has control, and avoid the "long end" where debt dynamics and political risk dominate.

The theme for 2026 is Inflexion. We are at the end of the "low rate, globalized, pure-software" era. We have entered the era of "high productivity, regionalized power, and physical AI."

The market is no longer a monolith. The "Magnificent Seven" are seeing a rotation; Alphabet (GOOGL) has leapfrogged Apple in market cap, perceived as the cleanest AI monetization story. Nvidia remains the "king," but the oxygen is being sucked out by the "other 493" stocks that are now entering their own earnings recovery.

The Strategic Plan:

1. Hedge with Gold: Not as an inflation hedge, but as an insurance policy against "Central Bank Error."
2. Buy the NAV Discounts: Situations like Exor allow you to own quality compounders without paying the "AI premium."
3. Watch the Donroe Doctrine: Geopolitics is no longer "noise"—it is a direct driver of energy and materials margins.

Disclaimer: This content is generated using AI, synthesizing public data (filings, reports, news) and social media (Reddit, X). It may contain errors, inaccuracies, or hallucinations. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. This newsletter is for informational purposes only; please consult a qualified professional and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.