Investment
Editor's Notes * The ceasefire has completely flipped the macro script, shifting us from a stagflation scare to a massive, margin-boosting drop in oil. Since retail sentiment is still stuck in neutral, this short squeeze likely has more room to run before institutional desks start looking for an exit.
Investment
Editor's Notes * The Strait of Hormuz "blockade" looks like a headline scare rather than a physical reality, as real-time trackers show ships are still moving. With hedge funds sitting on a record 7.6:1 short ratio, any hint of de-escalation will likely trigger a massive
Investment
Editor's Notes * The AI growth story might be hitting an analog wall as electrical infrastructure replaces chip supply as the primary bottleneck. With nearly half of planned US data centers delayed by shortages in transformers and switchgears, the physical grid simply cannot keep pace with silicon production. * The
Investment
Editor's Notes: * US and HK markets were closed for Good Friday. Today's letter provides mainly an update on Japan. * Nidec had a good day (+4%). We profiled the company in mid-Dec and still think there's good upside from here, with hopefully more positive governance
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Geopolitics, liquidity, and risk appetite continue to dominate the market, leading to a short-term de-emphasis on fundamentals. This could be a good opportunity for stock picking if you have conviction and patience, or a time to de-risk by lowering your portfolio exposure. We have heard from
Investment
Editor's Notes * Don’t get blinded by the "Trump Peace Dividend" rally; While the indices are cheering for de-escalation, the Strait of Hormuz remains physically blocked, pushing us toward a literal helium exhaustion event for chipmakers and a catastrophic sulfur cliff for global fertilizer production. * We
Investment
Editor's Notes * Japan is making a massive, under the radar move toward technological self-reliance that every tech investor needs to track. Between cutting subsidies for BYD to protect Toyota and the Fujitsu initiative to build pure domestic AI chips via Rapidus, the country is clearly trying to break
Investment
Editor's Notes * We are closely tracking the "Software Abundance" thesis which suggests that AI is fundamentally destroying the traditional SaaS moat by making the marginal cost of code near zero. This shift from software scarcity to abundance explains why even solid earnings from giants like Salesforce
Investment
Editor's Notes * The first annual profit drop at BYD since 2021 is a loud signal that the domestic Chinese price war has reached a brutal knockout stage. While record sales volume continues to impress, the real story is the strategic shift to overseas markets where margins are actually
Investment
Editor's Notes * The AI Moat Crisis: The AI trade is hitting a "moat crisis" as software breakthroughs like Google’s TurboQuant begin to cannibalize hardware demand. If Anthropic’s new capabilities can automate security exploits for pennies, the seat-based pricing models for companies like CrowdStrike are
Investment
Editor's Notes * The End of "Buy the Dip": We are finally past the "buy the dip" era and into a base case of structural stagflation. With 40% of Gulf energy infrastructure hit and oil at $106, inflation is no longer just a tail risk.
Investment
Editor's Notes * The Pivot to Real Assets: We are seeing a massive shift where geopolitical tensions are forcing a move away from "fake assets" like software and financial instruments toward "real assets" like commodities. With oil prices potentially hitting $150 per barrel by April