Editor's Notes: * US and HK markets were closed for Good Friday. Today's letter provides mainly an update on Japan. * Nidec had a good day (+4%). We profiled the company in mid-Dec and still think there's good upside from here, with hopefully more positive
Editor's Notes: * Geopolitics, liquidity, and risk appetite continue to dominate the market, leading to a short-term de-emphasis on fundamentals. This could be a good opportunity for stock picking if you have conviction and patience, or a time to de-risk by lowering your portfolio exposure. We
Editor's Notes * Don’t get blinded by the "Trump Peace Dividend" rally; While the indices are cheering for de-escalation, the Strait of Hormuz remains physically blocked, pushing us toward a literal helium exhaustion event for chipmakers and a catastrophic sulfur cliff for global fertilizer production.
Editor's Notes * Japan is making a massive, under the radar move toward technological self-reliance that every tech investor needs to track. Between cutting subsidies for BYD to protect Toyota and the Fujitsu initiative to build pure domestic AI chips via Rapidus, the country is clearly trying to
Editor's Notes * We are closely tracking the "Software Abundance" thesis which suggests that AI is fundamentally destroying the traditional SaaS moat by making the marginal cost of code near zero. This shift from software scarcity to abundance explains why even solid earnings from giants like Salesforce
Investment
Editor's Notes * The first annual profit drop at BYD since 2021 is a loud signal that the domestic Chinese price war has reached a brutal knockout stage. While record sales volume continues to impress, the real story is the strategic shift to overseas markets where margins are actually
Editor's Notes * The AI Moat Crisis: The AI trade is hitting a "moat crisis" as software breakthroughs like Google’s TurboQuant begin to cannibalize hardware demand. If Anthropic’s new capabilities can automate security exploits for pennies, the seat-based pricing models for companies like CrowdStrike
Editor's Notes * The End of "Buy the Dip": We are finally past the "buy the dip" era and into a base case of structural stagflation. With 40% of Gulf energy infrastructure hit and oil at $106, inflation is no longer just a tail risk.
Editor's Notes * The Pivot to Real Assets: We are seeing a massive shift where geopolitical tensions are forcing a move away from "fake assets" like software and financial instruments toward "real assets" like commodities. With oil prices potentially hitting $150 per barrel by April
Investment
Editor's Notes * The "Physical AI" Catalyst: If you caught Jensen Huang’s All-In interview, you know the narrative for telcos maybe just shifted. He’s reframing the entire sector as the "distributed AI grid" for the physical world. By adopting AI-RAN (AI-
Editor's Notes: * The SaaS pressure story is not new, but feels like market is reacting to it more seriously now. Before it was more like long-term concern, now it is hitting prices fast. If AI can replace workflows, then per-seat model becomes weaker. You can see
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Right now the market feels very fragile to headlines, almost too sensitive. Small news, even just comments or posts, can move futures and oil very fast. It gives feeling that trading is less about fundamentals and more about reaction speed. The risk around Strait of Hormuz