Editor’s Notes * AI just forced a regime reset in software. Overnight’s “SaaS-mageddon” wasn’t about earnings misses, it was about business models. Seat-based pricing is being questioned in real time as AI agents move from demos into workflows. The market is no longer paying for theoretical
Editor’s Notes * AI is no longer lifting all boats. What we’re seeing today is a clean split between “bits” and “atoms.” Legacy SaaS is being repriced around AI displacement and seat compression, with investors openly questioning per-seat economics. At the same time, the physical AI stack—servers,
Editor’s Notes * In this morning’s Daily Brief, we talked about the overnight rout across SaaS names, what some are calling “SaaSmageddon.” What stands out to me is that the selloff has far more to do with positioning and valuation than with fundamentals. Capital remains crowded in a narrow
Editor’s Notes * The AI trade is forcing a hard reset in software. What stands out today is how quickly the market has moved from “AI as upside” to “AI as a threat” for large swathes of SaaS. Usage-based pricing, collapsing multiples, and the sharp sell-off across CRM,
Editor’s Notes: * AI is running into real-world limits, and the funding model is changing. What caught my eye today wasn’t another chip headline, but Oracle leaning heavily into debt to fund AI cloud build-out. The next phase of AI is about power, balance sheets, and who
Investment
Editor’s Notes * Capacity, not demand, is quietly becoming the real constraint across sectors. From missile systems to semiconductors to logistics, earnings keep pointing to the same thing: the limiting factor is no longer “do customers want it?” but “can we physically make and deliver it?” Government-funded defense capacity,
Editor's Notes: * We conducted a quick survey of recent research reports on the Entertainment & Leisure sector, following two key events: * Konami: Rose 8% yesterday, driven by positive mobile gaming momentum and an upward revision to guidance. * Sands China: Fell 7% on Thursday, Jan 29, due to disappointing
Editor's Notes: * We are trying a new weekly podcast synthesis format this time. Below is the summary from ~100 episodes of podcasts over the last 7 days, served as a high-level review of the week. It's relatively US-centric due to current podcast selection. We
Editor's Notes: * When there is high insider selling, high policy uncertainty, and unresolved debates around AI, volatility is guaranteed. The massive drop in gold and silver yesterday, along with the software sector derating following Microsoft’s earnings, represents the first wave of volatility—especially given reports that '
Editor's Notes: * A 10% decline for MSFT is a rare sight. We have been bearish on US software over the last few weeks newsletters, and sentiment has been building toward this point. Will we see trimmed CapEx and R&D at Microsoft or OpenAI? I don'
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Liquidity surge in Hong Kong was noticeable. This tends to lift up the big names in HSI. Good to see some consumer names in the up list (Mengniu, Tingyi). We are waiting to see if any real sense of China cyclical recovery. * "Most risk-on
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Davos time. The heavy hitters came out in force. * Instead of our regular daily digest, we are doing a special letter synthesizing recent interviews with the top AI leaders: Satya Nadella at Microsoft (Jan 21), Demis Hassabis CEO of DeepMind (Jan 21) [my fav, if you