Investment
Editor’s Notes * AI is no longer lifting all boats. What we’re seeing today is a clean split between “bits” and “atoms.” Legacy SaaS is being repriced around AI displacement and seat compression, with investors openly questioning per-seat economics. At the same time, the physical AI stack—servers, networking,
Investment
Editor’s Notes * The AI trade is forcing a hard reset in software. What stands out today is how quickly the market has moved from “AI as upside” to “AI as a threat” for large swathes of SaaS. Usage-based pricing, collapsing multiples, and the sharp sell-off across CRM, ADBE, SNOW,
Investment
Editor’s Notes: * AI is running into real-world limits, and the funding model is changing. What caught my eye today wasn’t another chip headline, but Oracle leaning heavily into debt to fund AI cloud build-out. The next phase of AI is about power, balance sheets, and who can stomach
Investment
Editor's Notes: * When there is high insider selling, high policy uncertainty, and unresolved debates around AI, volatility is guaranteed. The massive drop in gold and silver yesterday, along with the software sector derating following Microsoft’s earnings, represents the first wave of volatility—especially given reports that '
Investment
Editor's Notes: * A 10% decline for MSFT is a rare sight. We have been bearish on US software over the last few weeks newsletters, and sentiment has been building toward this point. Will we see trimmed CapEx and R&D at Microsoft or OpenAI? I don'
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Liquidity surge in Hong Kong was noticeable. This tends to lift up the big names in HSI. Good to see some consumer names in the up list (Mengniu, Tingyi). We are waiting to see if any real sense of China cyclical recovery. * "Most risk-on since
Investment
Editor's Notes: * When national policies dominate headlines, it is time to reduce exposure to regulatory-sensitive industries. * Recall the China playbook from 2019–2023. The US is increasingly mirroring those trends: aggressive industrial policy, abrupt regulatory pivots, and mounting populist pressure on affordability (healthcare, housing). Yesterday's healthcare
Investment
Editor's Notes: * China Awaiting a Spark Expectations have been high for a consumption recovery in China in 2026, but the recent stock price declines in Li Ning and Fuyao Glass suggest the market is losing patience. Investors in our network are reporting mixed signals regarding Chinese consumer behavior,
Investment
Editor’s Notes * Japan is working… until it isn’t. Equity inflows are still there, but the market is no longer blind to the fiscal side of the story. Rising JGB yields and unfunded policy promises are creeping into risk pricing, and that matters. If we see currency support or
Investment
Editor's Notes: * The U.S. tape still feels “up,” but it’s a very specific kind of up. The rally on de-escalating trade headlines is real, but the market’s tolerance for surprises looks low. A slightly-hot PCE print and all the talk about “AI bubble” risk makes
Investment
Editor's Notes * The headline changed (again), but the signal didn’t. Even if the Europe tariff threat tied to Greenland gets toned down or paused, the bigger takeaway is the policy unpredictability premium that’s creeping into markets. What caught my eye was the flow-driven response from Europe
Investment
Editor’s Notes * Today has that classic risk-off tape with an extra layer of “this could gap again”. The headline is Trump’s tariff threat on Europe tied to Greenland, but the real market signal was capital flow behavior, not the soundbites. A Danish pension fund walking away from U.