Investment
Editor’s Note * Policy risk is back at the center of the tape. The Supreme Court relief rally was short-lived before a fresh 15% global tariff reset the narrative again. What struck me was how quickly this moved from a “retail headline” to a full supply chain repricing, hitting everything
Investment
Editor’s Note * The U.S. macro backdrop is getting more complicated, not clearer. Slowing growth alongside sticky inflation is putting the Fed in what feels like a genuine stagflation trap, and policy optionality is narrowing. At the same time, the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Some sectors saw reversals in sentiment due to macro: (a) high interest rates and a cooling luxury market continued to weigh on homebuilders and high-end furniture retailers (RH, LEN), (b) concerns over rising fuel costs, combined with severe winter weather ("Winter Storm Fern") and
Investment
Editor's Notes: * With permanent SaaS rerating possible and earnings expectations super high to justify multiples in the US, money is flowing to companies with high 2026 certainty and low valuation multiples. This is a time for bottom-up independent thinking, as there is no consensus yet how AI / geopolitics
Investment
Editor's Notes: * Stocks tend to become overbought or oversold when liquidity shifts. The ongoing rotation away from SaaS and high-multiple US equities will inevitably push up the price of some assets (e.g. Costco / Walmart way too expensive?) while providing bargain-hunting opportunities. Not all SaaS will lose favor—
Investment
Editor’s Note * We are living through an “AI Paradox.” The market is no longer rewarding “AI exposure” broadly. It is rewarding the landlords of the ecosystem. Chips, power, cooling, nuclear baseload, memory supply. Names like Applied Materials and Constellation Energy are being treated as essential infrastructure, while parts of
Investment
Editor’s Note * We are clearly in Phase Two of the AI cycle. The easy money phase is over. The market is now separating true infrastructure “Landlords” from vulnerable workflow tools, and rewarding companies that control data, distribution, and renewal rates. Nearly $700 billion in projected AI capex sounds impressive,
Investment
Editor’s Note * The credibility question is no longer fringe. With national debt compounding at a historic pace and interest expense crowding out core spending, investors are starting to price in a world where multiples compress not because of recession, but because of trust and funding costs. This is subtle,
Investment
Editor’s Note * Japan’s “Takaichi Bump” is real, but no longer forgiving. Optimism around policy continuity and corporate restructuring continues to support the market, yet valuation discipline is creeping back in. Elevated PBR levels and sharper currency moves are a reminder that this phase of the Japan trade is
Investment
Editor’s Notes * This is a market of sharp bifurcation, not broad risk-on or risk-off. Asia is quietly becoming the hunting ground for alpha, with Japan and Hong Kong benefiting from fiscal tailwinds, rotations into value, and selective tech rebounds. Meanwhile, the US feels fragile, with positioning risk and systematic
Investment
Editor’s Notes * Today’s market tension is no longer about whether AI spending continues, but whether it earns its keep. Massive infrastructure buildouts are colliding with rising skepticism around depreciation assumptions, cash flow durability, and ROI, pushing Big Tech toward a more asset-heavy, factory-style operating model that investors are
Investment
Editor’s Notes * AI just forced a regime reset in software. Overnight’s “SaaS-mageddon” wasn’t about earnings misses, it was about business models. Seat-based pricing is being questioned in real time as AI agents move from demos into workflows. The market is no longer paying for theoretical moats, only