Editor's Notes: * Birkenstock (BIRK) is reporting earnings today (May 13), and it is a great test case for the "premium consumer" trade. While many retailers are struggling, Birkenstock is benefiting from the easing of 2025 tariff pressures and potential tax refunds. With Michael Burry involved and
Editor's Notes: * Two ideas jumped out to me today. Uber is successfully turning autonomous vehicles into a supply source rather than a competitor. By partnering with Waymo, Zoox, and Rivian, they are ensuring that regardless of who builds the best car, the manufacturer still needs Uber’s network
Editor's Notes * JD.com (May 12) is a key barometer for the stability of Chinese consumer spending. While management’s recent move to raise the dividend to $1.00 shows a commitment to returning capital, the focus remains on whether core retail growth can hold steady, even as
Editor's Notes * Yesterday we flagged Rocket Lab (RKLB) as the only viable Western competitor to SpaceX, and the recent 34% surge confirms the "launch duopoly" thesis is sticking. With Blue Origin and ULA essentially stalled, RKLB’s Neutron vehicle is the only real threat to Musk’
Editor's Notes: * While we mentioned in today’s newsletter that many analysts seem to be pricing in a "perpetual supercycle" for the memory sector, the cold math of our cycle analysis suggests we are much closer to the edge, with a 90% cycle fraction already elapsed
Investment
Editor's Notes * We’re witnessing a fundamental re-classification of the memory sector. The street is no longer trading Micron and its peers as boom-bust commodity stocks, but as essential utilities for the AI data center. With mandatory refresh cycles replacing discretionary consumer demand, analysts are pricing
Editor's Notes * The biggest threat to the chip sector isn't a competitor; it's the customer. Amazon’s internal AI silicon, Trainium and Inferentia, is reportedly already scaling faster than AMD’s entire AI business. If the biggest hyperscale buyers successfully bypass the open market
Editor's Notes: * Data center server density is now so high that advanced liquid cooling is mandatory, making water the next critical bottleneck. The next uncrowded "picks and shovels" trade might be in desalination and water tech. Powering LLMs doesn't matter if you can'
Editor's Notes: * One interesting idea from the recent earnings is the (mis)pricing of big pharma patent cliffs right now. Take Bristol-Myers Squibb as an example. The market is so terrified of its impending 2028 exclusivity cliff for blockbusters like Opdivo and Eliquis that it has punished
Editor's Notes: * The bloodbath in legacy logistics is likely a structural repricing, not a cyclical dip. The double-digit sell-offs in legacy carriers (FedEx, UPS, GXO) reflect a terminal-value panic as Amazon aggressively opens its delivery network to third parties. The real threat is the shift
Investment
Editor's Notes: * This market update highlights a pivot in equity markets from "SaaSpocalypse" fears to a premium on "Agentic AI," with software leaders successfully integrating autonomous agents. Japan benefits from renewed structural tailwinds and increased investment following Berkshire Hathaway's long-term commitments,
Investment
Editor's Notes: * We just navigated the heaviest week of earnings season, and the defining takeaway is a divergence in Big Tech. The market has rewarded Alphabet for proving immediate cloud monetization while punishing Meta and Microsoft for their massive, unproven infrastructure bills. * The structural unlocking of Japanese value