Investment

GE Vernova Surges: Powering the AI Boom with SMRs, Gas Turbines & Strategic Electrification - Dec 09, 2025

Distilla AI

— 12 min read

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by surging AI-related power demand. The company is strategically repositioning, exiting offshore wind to focus on profitable onshore operations and advancing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Strong financial projections and substantial order growth, particularly in gas power and electrification, underscore a robust long-term outlook despite ongoing supply chain and wind segment challenges.

Chronological Narrative of Key Events

September 2025

  • 09-10-2025: GE Vernova (GEV) saw its stock surge by over 5-6%, driven by the expanding AI data center buildout. S&P Global Market Intelligence projected GEV's EPS to reach $41.28 by 2030.
  • 09-11-2025: GEV made a strategic decision to exit the offshore wind power market due to operational issues and unprofitability, reaffirming its focus on the profitable onshore wind business. CEO Scott Strazik projected $50 billion in orders and $37 billion in revenue for 2025.
  • 09-12-2025: The company announced a $600 million investment over two years to upgrade its U.S. factories, strengthening electrification capabilities. Concurrently, GEV planned to cut 600 jobs across its European operations, including 120 in France, as part of a restructuring effort.
  • 09-13-2025: CEO Scott Strazik indicated an anticipated decline in 2026 revenues, primarily due to soft onshore wind orders, causing a 1.5% drop in stock price. HSBC raised its price target to $580 (from $570) while maintaining a 'Hold' rating.
  • 09-15-2025: Melius Research upgraded GEV to a 'Buy' rating from 'Hold' and set a price target of $740, citing GEV's role in powering data centers and long-term energy demand, leading to a >1% stock increase.
  • 09-16-2025: GEV secured a customer win to repower a German wind farm with eight 6MW-164m turbines for Prokon. Jefferies raised its price target to $668 (from $658), maintaining a 'Hold' rating, driven by data center growth.
  • 09-17-2025: Zacks consensus EPS estimates for the current quarter and full-year were reported to have decreased, with the current quarter estimate falling by 10.8% to $1.76/share and the full-year by 5.13% to $7.62/share.
  • 09-19-2025: GEV was identified as a key player in the growing SCADA system market, leveraging AI/ML for predictive analytics.
  • 09-23-2025: Fidelity fund managers expressed a positive outlook on the industrial sector due to AI, reshoring, and defense spending, with GEV representing 7.6% of their Select Industrials Portfolio holdings. GEV also established its global headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • 09-24-2025: GEV acknowledged being significantly affected by the U.S.'s reliance on foreign-sourced components for power infrastructure, leading to backlogs, shortages, and increased costs (3-6% budget increase due to tariffs). The company also reinforced its competitive position in the data center market, outmatching Bloom Energy in price, speed, and reliability.
  • 09-25-2025: GEV announced a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share.
  • 09-27-2025: Omar Aguilar of Schwab Asset Management highlighted GEV as a beneficiary of AI-driven energy demand.
  • 09-29-2025: GEV partnered with Deep Sky to deploy direct air capture (DAC) technology in Canada, targeting 1,500 tons of carbon capture annually by late 2026. GEV Hitachi's BWRX-300 SMR gained traction with planned construction in Canada and an application from TVA in the US.
  • 09-30-2025: General Electric's breakup into three independent companies, including GEV, was completed.

October 2025

  • 10-01-2025: A GEV wind turbine blade was severely damaged at Iberdrola's Flyers Creek wind farm in Australia. This incident contributed to RBC Capital Markets downgrading GEV to 'Hold' (from 'Buy') and lowering its price target to $605 (from $631), citing valuation concerns and challenges in the wind business.
  • 10-03-2025: GEV partnered with Verizon to modernize the power grid with its MDS Orbit wireless platform, enhancing secure communication for critical infrastructure.
  • 10-04-2025: A valuation disparity was noted in the gas turbine sector, with Siemens Energy AG trading at a 60% discount to GEV, despite both dominating market capacity.
  • 10-06-2025: GEV projected adjusted EPS growth of 37% in FY25 and 70% in FY26, with revenue growth of 7% (FY25) and 11% (FY26). CEO Scott Strazik committed to stock buybacks and dividends, citing improving financial position.
  • 10-07-2025: Jim Cramer's Investing Club upgraded GEV to 'buy-equivalent 1' and purchased shares due to conviction in AI infrastructure demand. GEV also formed a joint venture with AirJoule Technologies for atmospheric water harvesting using MOF technology.
  • 10-08-2025: GEV secured $14 billion in orders from Saudi Arabia for gas turbines and energy solutions and expanded production for AI data center energy demand, including turbines for OpenAI's Stargate.
  • 10-10-2025: The "AI Power Boom" was reported to be driving soaring orders and prices for GEV's gas turbines. GEV secured an A$113.7 million Master Lease Agreement with QPM Energy for two LM6000 gas turbines. Zacks consensus EPS estimate decreased by 4.9% over 30 days.
  • 10-11-2025: GEV received approval to begin construction on its BWRX-300 SMR in Ontario, Canada (first in Western hemisphere). GEV was also shortlisted by Vattenfall for SMR projects in Sweden.
  • 10-13-2025: Susquehanna raised its price target to $740 (from $736) and maintained a 'Buy' rating, citing benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act. GEV stock closed over 7% higher.
  • 10-15-2025: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded GEV to 'Sell' (from 'Neutral') with a $475 price target, citing overvaluation and unrealistic profit margins, leading to a >4% stock drop. GEV reported Q1 2024 (likely meant to be 2025, considering dates) EPS of $1.86 (beat 16.25%) and revenue of $9.11B (beat 3.26%, +11.1% YOY).
  • 10-16-2025: GEV reported that global supply chain disruptions were causing high costs, shortages, and production delays, with gas turbine production booked until 2028. Zacks consensus 2025/2026 EPS estimates were revised downwards by 2.04% and 3.42% respectively.
  • 10-17-2025: GEV sold its onshore blades factory in Poland and launched PlanOS software for utilities.
  • 10-21-2025: GEV agreed to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE (a joint venture with Xignux) for $5.275 billion, aiming to accelerate growth in its Electrification segment. The deal is expected to close by mid-2026, be immediately accretive, and add $600 million to 2026 EBITDA. Separately, GEV sold its Proficy industrial software business to TPG for $600 million to reinvest in core operations.
  • 10-22-2025: GEV reported Q3 2025 actual results: Revenue $9.97 billion, Net Income $453 million, EPS $1.64. Year-to-date (9 months): Revenue $27.1 billion, Net Income $1.2 billion, EPS $4.41. RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) reached $135.2 billion. The company reaffirmed its FY25 revenue guidance at the higher end of $36-37 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 8-9%, and FCF of $3-3.5 billion. CEO Scott Strazik commented that capital spending for power and electrification businesses is expected to peak next year, and was cautious about expanding manufacturing capacity, leading to a 9% stock drop. GEV reported strong Q3 order growth (up 55% to $14.6B, backlog up $6.6B) driven by AI infrastructure demand.
  • 10-23-2025: Jim Cramer reiterated a positive outlook on GEV, highlighting its nuclear business and gas turbines for data centers, viewing the recent stock dip as an "opportunity." Bank of America maintained a 'Buy' rating ($725 target) after strong Q3 results and the Prolec GE acquisition. TD Cowen lowered its price target to $680 (from $685) due to weaker wind orders, but maintained 'Buy'. Citigroup lowered its target to $658 (from $670), maintaining 'Neutral'.
  • 10-28-2025: GEV CEO Scott Strazik communicated ongoing engagement with OpenAI's leadership regarding "enhanced AI energy protocols," suggesting potential future collaborations.
  • 10-30-2025: Deepwater Asset Management, led by Doug Clinton, sold its stake in GEV due to concerns about the valuation of AI energy plays.

November 2025

  • 11-04-2025: Analysts expected GEV to deliver adjusted EPS of $7.47 for FY25 (211.3% YOY increase).
  • 11-07-2025: The DOE awarded a $400 million grant to TVA for GE Vernova Hitachi's BWRX-300 SMR deployment in the US, providing GEV with potential revenue of $444 million and boosting its stock by 4%+. GEV also secured a contract for BWRX-300 SMRs in Canada, aiming for power production by 2030. JPMorgan added GEV to its analyst focus list with a positive catalyst watch ahead of its December 9 investor update.
  • 11-12-2025: Anthropic's $50 billion AI infrastructure investment and Chevron's order for seven natural gas turbines further bolstered demand for GEV's gas turbines for data centers.
  • 11-13-2025: GEV's equipment pipeline for gas turbines and power grid hardware was reported sold out until 2028 due to AI demand. GEV secured a customer win with Blackstone for the 600MW Wolf Summit Energy facility in West Virginia, using its 7HA.02 gas turbine for AI/industrial demand. GEV also entered early discussions for a potential $7 billion power-sector rebuild in Syria and launched the Jafurah Cogeneration ISPP in Saudi Arabia.
  • 11-14-2025: GEV reaffirmed its 2025 guidance with strong EPS and revenue growth projections (adjusted EPS +34% FY25, +71% FY26; Revenue +6.4% FY25, +12% FY26).
  • 11-15-2025: GEV secured naming rights for Greenville Pro Soccer stadium ('GE Vernova Park') and announced plans to hire over 500 people in Upstate South Carolina.
  • 11-16-2025: CEO Scott Strazik highlighted a severe global shortage of transformers, with GEV's production capacity booked until 2028, noting that resolving US power demand is a 10-15 year challenge, not just a funding issue, which could limit AI infrastructure expansion.
  • 11-17-2025: Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office made new, significant investments in GEV, focusing on energy providers for AI data centers. Vanguard Group significantly increased its stake in GEV by 1.1% to $13.05 billion, now holding 9.06% of the company.
  • 11-19-2025: Numerous institutional investors (Empowered Funds, Aspen Investment, Stonebrook Private, Avantax Advisory, J.L. Bainbridge, Boston Research, Sfmg LLC) increased their stakes in GEV, while others (FineMark National Bank & Trust, Dorsey Wright & Associates, Thoroughbred Financial Services, SG Americas Securities, Frank Rimerman Advisors) reduced theirs. JPMorgan raised its price target to $740, and Wells Fargo to $717.
  • 11-20-2025: Multiple reputable brokers (BMO Capital, Robert W. Baird, Glj Research, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Barclays) increased price targets for GEV, generally maintaining positive ratings. Mizuho lowered its target to $660. CFO Kenneth Scott Parks sold 3,300 shares for $2.046 million. GEV announced its Kelman DGA software was enhanced with AI algorithms for transformer monitoring, and announced an investment of $96M to expand its Advanced Research Center, hiring 75 new researchers.
  • 11-22-2025: Evelyn Partners Investment (both entities), Mufg Securities Americas, Rhumbline Advisers increased stakes, while Mediolanum International Funds, Catalyst Funds Management, Tableaux LLC reduced stakes.
  • 11-23-2025: Charles Schwab, American Century, JPMorgan, Prudential, Sierra Summit increased stakes, and Franklin Resources reduced its stake. GEV partnered with Saudi Electricity Company for synchronous condenser projects and expanded its Dammam manufacturing center, introducing 7HA.03 gas turbines.
  • 11-24-2025: GEV secured $400M in Q3 orders from hyperscalers ($900M full year), expanding gas power factories with 200 new machines and 800 workers, aiming for 20 GW production by next year. Pathikrit Bose identified GEV as a key "picks and shovels" AI infrastructure investment.
  • 11-26-2025: GEV was in advanced negotiations for a $7 billion initiative to rebuild Syria's power infrastructure.

December 2025

  • 12-04-2025: GEV's investor update on December 9 is anticipated to include raised guidance for 2025, 2026 outlook, and an updated 2028 outlook. Deutsche Bank projects 2028 revenue of $48 billion (from $45 billion), EBITDA margins of 16% (from 14%), and cumulative FCF (2025-2028) of $18 billion (from $14 billion). Barclays raised its price target to $720 (from $710). The Genesis Mission, a federal initiative to modernize the US power grid for AI demand, presents significant opportunities for GEV.
  • 12-07-2025: GEV's industry outlook improved significantly, driven by surging power demand from AI and data centers. The company reported strong backlog growth in Power (18%) and Electrification (38%), though Wind backlog declined by 14%. Management targets a 10% EBITDA margin for the wind segment by 2028 (up from -6.1% in 2024) and has shifted its wind strategy to prioritize existing offshore and developing onshore. GEV is experiencing a surge in gas turbine orders, including multi-gigawatt deals for AI/data centers.

Key Thematic Synthesis

GE Vernova (GEV) is undergoing a transformative period marked by unprecedented demand for power infrastructure, largely driven by the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom, strategic repositioning of its segments, and significant operational expansions. While navigating persistent supply chain challenges and competitive dynamics, the company's long-term outlook appears robust, reflected in strong order growth and positive analyst sentiment, despite some near-term headwinds in its wind business.

1. AI-Driven Demand and Strategic Market Focus

The AI revolution is the dominant theme impacting GE Vernova. The company is experiencing a "supercycle" of investment into reliable baseload power, grid infrastructure, and decarbonization solutions, directly fueled by the insatiable energy demands of AI data centers.

  • Surging Orders: GEV reported a 55% increase in orders to $14.6 billion in Q3 2025, leading to a $6.6 billion growth in backlog, reaching a total of $135.2 billion. This demand is overwhelming supply, with its equipment pipeline sold out until 2028, particularly for gas turbines and power grid hardware.
  • Hyperscaler Engagement: GEV secured $400 million in Q3 orders from hyperscalers, projecting $900 million in electrification-related orders for the full year 2025 (up from $600 million in 2024). CEO Scott Strazik noted that while traditional customers dominate current orders, the proportion from hyperscalers is expected to grow significantly.
  • Key Wins: Major wins include multi-gigawatt gas turbine deals specifically for AI and data centers (e.g., additional 19 turbines for Crusoe, 7 turbines for Chevron) and the selection of GEV's 7HA.02 gas turbine for Blackstone's 600MW Wolf Summit Energy facility in West Virginia, aimed at meeting AI and industrial demand.
  • Government Initiatives: The "Genesis Mission," a federal initiative to modernize the US power grid for AI, and the US government's goal to quadruple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 present substantial opportunities for GEV.
  • Market Sentiment: Prominent investors like Jim Cramer and Stanley Druckenmiller have expressed bullish views on GEV, with Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office taking significant new positions. However, some, like Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management, have sold due to AI valuation concerns. Paul Wick of Columbia Seligman Technology Fund views GEV as the "best nuclear story" but "fully valued."

2. Financial Performance, Guidance, and Analyst Views

GE Vernova delivered mixed Q3 2025 results but maintains a positive long-term outlook.

  • Q3 2025 Results: Revenue of $9.97 billion beat consensus estimates of $9.15 billion (+11.8% YOY). However, EPS of $1.64 missed consensus of $1.72 by $0.08. Year-to-date (9 months), revenue reached $27.1 billion and EPS was $4.41.
  • FY25 Guidance (Reaffirmed 10/22): GEV reaffirmed FY25 revenue guidance at the higher end of $36-37 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 8-9%, and free cash flow of $3-3.5 billion.
  • Updated Guidance (Anticipated 12/04): An investor update on Dec 9 is expected to raise 2025 guidance and update the 2028 outlook. Deutsche Bank projects 2028 revenue of $48 billion (from $45 billion), EBITDA margins of 16% (from 14%), and cumulative FCF (2025-2028) of $18 billion (from $14 billion), though still below sell-side consensus.
  • Long-Term Projections: Analysts project GEV's adjusted EPS to grow 37% in FY25 and 70% in FY26, reaching $12.97/share, with revenue growing 7% (FY25) and 11% (FY26), totaling $41 billion. S&P Global projects EPS to reach $41.28 by 2030.
  • Analyst Actions:
    • Upgrades/Target Increases: Melius Research upgraded to 'Buy' ($740 target). Susquehanna raised to $740. BofA maintained 'Buy' ($725 target). Barclays, BMO Capital, Robert W. Baird, Glj Research, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS all raised price targets, generally maintaining positive ratings.
    • Downgrades/Target Decreases: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded to 'Sell' ($475 target) citing overvaluation and unrealistic profit margins, causing a >4% stock drop. RBC Capital Markets downgraded to 'Hold' ($605 target) due to valuation, wind challenges, and a turbine blade failure incident. Mizuho lowered its target to $660.
  • Shareholder Returns: GEV declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share and committed to stock buybacks.

3. Segment-Specific Developments

  • Gas Power:
    • Strong backlog growth of 18%.
    • Major $14 billion orders from Saudi Arabia for gas turbines and energy solutions.
    • Significant production capacity expansion: investing in 200 new machines and hiring 800 production workers to reach a 20 GW annualized production run rate by next year.
    • Introduced 7HA.03 gas turbines to Saudi Arabia, expanded Dammam manufacturing.
    • Discussions for a potential $7 billion Syria power-sector rebuild.
  • Wind:
    • Strategic exit from the unprofitable offshore wind market, with a focus on profitable onshore wind.
    • Wind backlog declined by 14%.
    • Management targets a 10% EBITDA margin for the wind segment by 2028 (up from -6.1% in 2024).
    • Q3 FY25 segment outlook revised to expect ~$400 million in EBITDA losses (from $200-400 million range) and a high single-digit revenue decline.
    • Secured first international onshore wind repower upgrade contract with Taiwan Power Company (25 upgrade kits + 5-year O&M), which boosted stock price by 7%+.
    • Suffered a wind turbine blade failure at Iberdrola's Flyers Creek wind farm in Australia, contributing to an RBC Capital downgrade.
    • CEO indicated soft onshore wind orders could lead to a revenue decline in 2026.
  • Electrification:
    • Robust backlog growth of 38%.
    • Organic revenue growth target raised to ~25% (from 20%) with a 14-15% EBITDA margin.
    • $600 million investment over two years to upgrade US factories.
    • Acquired the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE for $5.275 billion, expected to close mid-2026, boosting electrification growth and adding $600 million to 2026 EBITDA. This acquisition also removes a non-compete clause, allowing GEV to fully penetrate the North American transformer market.
    • Partnered with Verizon for a grid modernization platform.
    • Invested $120 million in its grid-software division for DERMS development.
  • Nuclear / Small Modular Reactors (SMRs):
    • Significant traction for GE Vernova Hitachi's BWRX-300 SMR design.
    • Received approval to begin BWRX-300 SMR construction in Ontario, Canada (first in Western hemisphere).
    • Awarded a $400 million DOE grant to TVA for BWRX-300 SMR deployment in the US, with GEV's potential revenue estimated at $444 million.
    • Vattenfall shortlisted GEV for SMR projects in Sweden (potential 1500MW).

4. Operational and Supply Chain Challenges

  • Transformer Shortage: CEO Scott Strazik highlighted a severe global shortage of transformers, with GEV's production capacity booked until 2028. He noted that resolving US power demand is a 10-15 year challenge, not just a funding issue, which could limit AI infrastructure expansion.
  • Global Supply Chain Disruptions: GEV faces high costs, shortages of raw materials/components, production delays, and a 3-6% budget increase due to tariffs on multi-billion-dollar energy projects.
  • Labor Realignments: Alongside significant hiring initiatives in the US (500+ in Upstate SC, 75 researchers in Niskayuna, NY, 800 production workers for gas power), GEV announced 600 job cuts in Europe.

In conclusion, GE Vernova is strategically leveraging the immense demand driven by AI and global electrification needs. While successfully expanding its core Power and Electrification segments and advancing in the promising SMR market, the company is actively addressing underperforming areas like offshore wind and navigating persistent supply chain and macroeconomic challenges. The market generally views GEV favorably, with strong analyst support and investor interest, although some concerns about AI valuation and the execution of ambitious growth plans remain. The upcoming investor update in December is highly anticipated for further clarity on its long-term strategy and financial targets.

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