Daily Market Brief - Jan 31, 2026

Editor's Notes:

  • When there is high insider selling, high policy uncertainty, and unresolved debates around AI, volatility is guaranteed. The massive drop in gold and silver yesterday, along with the software sector derating following Microsoft’s earnings, represents the first wave of volatility—especially given reports that 'S&P 500 liquidity [is] dangerously thin.'
  • That said, we are still seeing substantial price surges following earnings surprises (counter to the 'sell the news' trend), specifically in names like Robert Half, Deckers Outdoor, Makita, Verizon, Konami, Colgate, and New Oriental. These companies are all relatively removed from the AI 'center of gravity.'
  • Over the next 24 months, I expect more investors to look for value and business momentum in sectors untouched, or only partially touched, by AI. Strong execution and capital market actions (buybacks, insider buying, spin-offs) will likely attract attention and drive rerating in those areas.

This market analysis highlights a pivot towards 'ROI Realism' in Big Tech, hawkish monetary expectations, and a significant re-evaluation of software valuations. Key themes include the 'Warsh Pivot' and AI ROI divergence in the US, selective 'Takaichi Trade' and governance momentum in Japan, and geopolitical de-rating impacting Hong Kong, alongside significant stock movements and emerging investment theses.

Overall Market Themes, Sentiment & Debates

US Market: The Warsh Pivot and AI ROI Divergence

The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair has recalibrated terminal rate expectations, triggering a violent liquidation in precious metals (Gold -8%, Silver -17%) and a rebound in the USD. Within equities, a sharp divergence is observed in Big Tech: Meta is rewarded for proving AI ROI through ad-conversion efficiency, while Microsoft is penalized for 'concentration risk' regarding its OpenAI dependency and a perceived lack of immediate margin expansion from its massive capex.

A growing debate among desks is the "Banana Republic" market theory—the idea that S&P 500 liquidity is dangerously thin, driven almost entirely by passive 401k inflows, leaving the system vulnerable to a volatility shock as insider selling reaches 4x historical norms.

Japan Market: Selective "Takaichi Trade" & Governance Momentum

The Nikkei is experiencing a 'second-tier' rotation. While broad indices have retreated on profit-taking, selective buying is aggressive in names with fundamental upgrades (Advantest, Hitachi). The 'Takaichi Trade' (defense and energy infrastructure) remains a core theme, supported by Japan's 2% GDP defense spending target and nuclear restarts. Corporate governance reforms continue to be the primary alpha driver, though the market is becoming more discerning regarding cost-pass-through lags in the nonferrous sector despite rising LME futures.

Hong Kong Market: Geopolitical De-rating Concerns

Hong Kong remains the global epicenter of geopolitical risk. The recent Panama High Court ruling against CK Hutchison is being viewed through a 'Trump-effect' lens—a proxy battle for regional influence that is causing a fundamental de-rating of HK-listed conglomerates. While sectors like medical beauty (EC Healthcare) show resilience, the broader index is struggling with a 'China-risk' discount that overshadows attractive valuations.

Notable Stock Movements, Earnings & Developments

Symbol Company Short Name Price Move Explanation
RHIRobert Half Inc.+27.69%Exceeded Q4 EPS estimates and projected a return to positive growth by Q3 2026 using AI.
DECKDeckers Outdoor+19.36%Strong Q3 earnings beat and positive FY2026 guidance driven by UGG and HOKA brand demand.
6586.TMakita Corporation+15.12%Q3 earnings beat, upward revision of profit guidance, and shareholder-friendly dividend policy change.
VZVerizon+11.83%Strong Q4 earnings, record subscriber growth, and optimistic 2026 guidance following Frontier Communications acquisition.
285A.TKioxia Holdings+10.28%Extended joint venture with SanDisk to 2034 and received $1.165 billion for manufacturing services.
9766.TKonami Group+8.08%Record Q3 revenue and upward revision of full-year guidance driven by core gaming content.
LBRDKLiberty Broadband+7.92%Strong earnings surprise and details of a strategic combination with Charter Communications.
CHTRCharter+7.62%Strong free cash flow growth, increased share repurchases, and positive mobile line additions.
MOG-AMoog Inc.+6.01%Strong Q1 earnings beat and raised FY2026 guidance due to robust aerospace and defense demand.
CLColgate-Palmolive+5.93%Strong Q4/FY25 earnings and optimistic 2026 guidance projecting growth and margin expansion.
BEPCBrookfield Renewable+5.90%Strong 2025 financial results with 10% FFO growth and increased quarterly distribution.
9901.HKNew Oriental+5.63%Q2 earnings beat, strong revenue growth in new initiatives, and updated shareholder return plan.
6702.TFujitsu Limited+5.28%Strong Q3 profit growth, increased full-year guidance, and significant dividend increase.
BBWIBath & Body Works+5.16%
6501.THitachi, Ltd.+5.07%Strong financial results and robust full-year consolidated revenue and profit forecasts.
4519.TChugai Pharma+5.05%Analyst upgrade, record-breaking 2026 forecast, and significant dividend increase.
GMEGameStop Corp.+4.89%CEO transformation plan to a $100 billion company and endorsement from investor Michael Burry.
9866.HKNIO Inc.+4.77%Q3 performance beat expectations and Abu Dhabi state-owned holding company increased its ownership stake.
9697.TCapcom Co., Ltd.+4.74%Strong Q3 financial report with significant profit growth and optimistic sales volume forecasts.
MODModine Manufacturing+4.71%Announced spinoff/merger of Performance Technologies and reported strong quarterly earnings beat.
CHDChurch & Dwight+4.69%Positive 2026 outlook, market share gains, and repositioning toward high-growth product lines.
MSTRStrategy Inc+4.55%
TAT&T Inc.+4.32%Multi-part bond issuance to enhance balance-sheet flexibility for 5G and fiber expansion.
SYKStryker Corporation+4.27%Strong Q4 earnings, optimistic 2026 guidance, and several new product launches.
TMUST-Mobile US+4.19%Acquisition of Lumos to expand fiber business and partnership with Southwest Airlines.
GISGeneral Mills+4.10%Strategic strategy for FY2026 focusing on North America growth and $100 million cost savings.
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch+3.96%Strong operational performance, store expansion, and share buybacks driving EPS growth.
WHRWhirlpool Corp.+3.95%Proactive 2026 guidance and lower impairments overshadowed a credit rating downgrade to junk status.
CAGConagra Brands+3.81%Quarterly dividend announcement and increased institutional holdings by AE Wealth and Vanguard.
MOAltria Group+3.75%Positive analyst coverage and 2026 EPS guidance signaling confidence in price hikes and cost discipline.
9843.TNitori Holdings+3.70%
POSTPost Holdings+3.68%Q1 earnings beat and insider buying by a director.
0670.HKChina Eastern+3.63%Strategic expansion into the Abu Dhabi market and key global destinations.
CPBCampbell's Company+3.59%Identified as a defensive, recession-proof asset during a trade dispute-driven market downturn.
4911.TShiseido Company+3.48%Goldman Sachs upgrade and positive growth outlooks across several global cosmetics segments.
7751.TCanon Inc.+3.44%Surge in annual profit and optimistic outlook projecting record-high sales for 2026.
IPInternational Paper+3.38%DS Smith integration success and strategy focused on cost-cutting and high-return projects.
TSLATesla, Inc.+3.32%Market reaction to reports that SpaceX is considering a merger with the company.
PEPPepsiCo, Inc.+3.32%Q4 revenue beat and analyst price target increase citing a "flight to safety."
7309.TShimano Inc.+3.31%Positive industry outlook for fishing equipment and launch of high-performance bike products.
GHGuardant Health+3.22%Significant price target increase by Piper Sandler and growing demand in cf-DNA testing market.
ABTAbbott Laboratories+3.04%Optimistic 2026 guidance and product launches outweighed a Q4 nutrition segment revenue miss.
1911.TSumitomo Forestry+3.01%
DOCSDoximity, Inc.-3.04%Insider selling by a director following a medical AI startup acquisition.
MANHManhattan Associates-3.06%
0325.HKBloks Group-3.08%
BWABorgWarner Inc.-3.09%Analyst downgrade and significant stakeholder reduction amid intensified competition from Eaton's spinoff.
SNPSSynopsys, Inc.-3.10%
MBLYMobileye Global-3.13%Revenue decline due to customer inventory adjustments and cautious management outlook.
NXPINXP Semiconductors-3.15%Sector-wide semiconductor downturn, overvaluation concerns, and a slight EPS miss.
MELIMercadoLibre-3.17%Legal conflict with Temu in Argentina and reiteration of a "Sell" rating by Zacks.
2208.HKGoldwind Science-3.19%J.P. Morgan recommended shifting investment to upstream wind power competitors.
3888.HKKingsoft Corp.-3.19%Market reaction to a follow-on offering despite reaching a profitability inflection point in AI.
IRIngersoll Rand-3.21%Institutional and insider selling activity following concerns over tariff-related headwinds.
0390.HKChina Railway-3.21%
BEBloom Energy-3.23%Price decline despite partnership with Brookfield Infrastructure for data center power.
CRDOCredo Technology-3.24%Multiple insider share sales and an analyst downgrade despite a Q1 earnings beat.
ATATAtour Lifestyle-3.25%
SYMSymbotic Inc.-3.26%Reiteration of a Zacks "Sell" rating and insider selling despite a massive earnings surprise.
ILMNIllumina, Inc.-3.26%Trimming of shares by ARK Invest despite a Q4 earnings beat.
LEVILevi Strauss & Co.-3.26%Gross margin contraction from tariffs and distribution costs, and insider selling.
NXTNextpower Inc.-3.30%Cautious analyst stance, insider selling, and concerns regarding acquisition integration.
9633.HKNongfu Spring-3.31%Intense new competition in the packaged water market from Reliance Consumer Products.
TTANServiceTitan-3.32%Fears that Google's Gemini AI could disrupt the software company's business model.
ENPHEnphase Energy-3.32%
AMKRAmkor Technology-3.34%Analyst downgrade to "Hold" and significant insider selling.
0175.HKGeely Automobile-3.35%
LSCCLattice Semi-3.35%Insider selling activity and significant reduction in holdings by a major institutional investor.
SNOWSnowflake Inc.-3.35%Lowered price forecast, competition from hyperscalers, and a securities-law investigation.
SMCISuper Micro-3.35%Q4 EPS and revenue miss, shrinking gross margins, and past governance controversies.
FNDFloor & Decor-3.37%Price target reductions from major banks and stake reductions by institutional investors.
EBAYeBay Inc.-3.38%Stagnating active buyers, rising costs, and disappointing average revenue per buyer growth.
INSPInspire Medical-3.41%
CHWYChewy, Inc.-3.42%Retirement of the CTO causing uncertainty regarding key strategic tech initiatives.
DELLDell Technologies-3.45%
PLTRPalantir Tech-3.47%
MKSIMKS Inc.-3.47%
WIXWix.com Ltd.-3.48%Broader software sector sell-off and concerns about rising AI costs impacting profitability.
RBRKRubrik, Inc.-3.52%Increased competitive pressure following NinjaOne's acquisition of Dropsuite in the backup market.
IOTSamsara Inc.-3.54%Software sector sell-off and geopolitical trade tensions sparked by the Greenland dispute.
ETSYEtsy, Inc.-3.55%
CCLCarnival Corp.-3.63%Corporate restructuring plan to unify the company into a single entity.
1072.HKDongfang Electric-3.63%
APHAmphenol Corp.-3.66%Underwhelming sales forecast and concerns over debt levels following a major acquisition.
LHXL3Harris Tech-3.67%Q4 revenue miss and announcement to spin off its missile solutions business.
CYTKCytokinetics-3.67%Significant Q1 revenue miss and lowered analyst revenue estimates for 2026.
2238.HKGuangzhou Auto-3.69%
FLEXFlex Ltd.-3.71%Significant institutional and insider selling activity.
ONON Semiconductor-3.71%
ENTGEntegris, Inc.-3.78%Analyst downgrade to "Sell" and substantial insider selling.
CLBTCellebrite DI Ltd.-3.79%
GRABGrab Holdings-3.80%Regulatory uncertainty in Indonesia regarding commission caps and institutional divestment.
WWayfair Inc.-3.80%Significant insider sales by the CEO and co-founder totaling over $32 million.
2359.HKWuXi AppTec-3.81%
MTSIMACOM Technology-3.81%Significant insider selling activity by the company's CFO.
6861.TKeyence Corporation-3.82%Earnings results appeared to fall short of high market expectations despite growth.
TLNTalen Energy-3.82%
CAVACAVA Group-3.82%Downgrades due to premium valuation, slowing same-store sales, and margin pressures.
APTVAptiv PLC-3.86%Workforce reductions in Poland and the spinoff of its Electrical Distribution business.
DUOLDuolingo, Inc.-3.88%
KEXKirby Corporation-3.89%Fourth-quarter revenue miss and modest guidance for 2026 financial performance.
NCLHNorwegian Cruise-4.01%
ALVAutoliv, Inc.-4.10%Cautious 2026 guidance and a safety recall for side curtain airbags.
NOVTNovanta Inc.-4.19%
PSTGPure Storage-4.21%Negative commentary from Jim Cramer regarding valuation and a maintained "Sell" rating.
SRPTSarepta Therapeutics-4.21%
ANETArista Networks-4.23%Target price cuts and increased competition in the AI data center networking market.
GNTXGentex Corporation-4.28%Q4 EPS miss and a decline in core sales due to reduced Chinese demand.
TERTeradyne, Inc.-4.30%Institutional reduction in holdings by ARK Invest.
MCHPMicrochip Tech-4.33%Assessment of significant overvaluation compared to industry peers and intrinsic value.
SNAPSnap Inc.-4.35%
SESea Limited-4.44%Underperforming profit expectations and intense competition in the e-commerce sector.
0001.HKCK Hutchison-4.46%
RGENRepligen Corp.-4.48%Concerns over declining long-term profitability and an elevated forward valuation.
INTCIntel Corporation-4.50%Negative market reaction to manufacturing outlook and concerns regarding 18A process margins.
0168.HKTsingtao Brewery-4.55%
VRTVertiv Holdings-4.56%Intensified competition in the data center market and insider selling.
ALKAlaska Air Group-4.63%Significant downward revision of Q1 earnings estimates to a projected loss.
ZZillow Group-4.73%Litigation risks to its revenue model and forecast of a home value correction.
KTOSKratos Defense-4.76%Sector-wide downturn for defense stocks and a cautious "Neutral" analyst initiation.
MUMicron Technology-4.80%Concerns that AI will disrupt the SaaS model, impacting semiconductor demand.
LYFTLyft, Inc.-4.96%
MPWRMonolithic Power-4.99%Massive insider selling totaling over $18 million and institutional reduction of holdings.
6857.TAdvantest Corp.-5.04%
GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES-5.08%
AXONAxon Enterprise-5.10%
RDDTReddit, Inc.-5.13%Negative community sentiment and missteps in managing platform relations.
RUMRumble Inc.-5.17%Negative market reaction to expansion into short-form content and competition with TikTok.
ONTOOnto Innovation-5.18%Anticipated decline in Q1 EPS and significant institutional selling.
ROKURoku, Inc.-5.24%Partnership with Dolby perceived as a potential cost increase for the streamer.
PATHUiPath Inc.-5.28%
6865.HKFlat Glass Group-5.44%
BROSDutch Bros Inc.-5.46%Downgrade to "Sell" and intensified competition from Starbucks' expansion strategy.
6504.TFuji Electric-5.56%Decline in quarterly net income and updated guidance for the fiscal year.
AMATApplied Materials-5.57%U.S.-China export restriction concerns and a broader technology sector downturn.
TEMTempus AI, Inc.-5.81%Maintained "Sell" rating and projected continued financial losses for 2025.
6701.TNEC Corporation-5.86%Market reaction to full-year guidance despite reporting strong third-quarter results.
LRCXLam Research-5.93%
MRNAModerna, Inc.-5.95%
SMMTSummit Therapeutics-5.97%
RCLRoyal Caribbean-6.06%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices-6.13%Intensified competition from Google’s custom chips and Intel’s new Panther Lake architecture.
ALABAstera Labs-6.13%
CVNACarvana Co.-6.16%
6532.TBaycurrent, Inc.-6.19%Technology sector concerns regarding cloud growth and a high price-to-earnings valuation.
RMBSRambus Inc.-6.39%Stock declined despite exceeding quarterly revenue estimates.
1929.HKChow Tai Fook-6.49%
1880.HKChina Tourism-6.54%
RKLBRocket Lab-6.55%
SOUNSoundHound AI-6.83%Insider selling by the Chief Technology Officer.
AURAurora Innovation-6.87%Concerns regarding R&D spending and adoption uncertainty for its PACCAR partnership.
SKYChampion Homes-7.22%Significant institutional divestment and insider selling by a Vice President.
IONQIonQ, Inc.-7.53%
SMRNuScale Power-7.64%Significant quarterly earnings miss and substantial insider selling by the CFO.
TTWOTake-Two Interactive-7.93%Significant stake reduction by a major fund and pre-earnings jitters.
NVMINova Ltd.-8.00%Likely profit-taking following a significant year-to-date run-up.
DKNGDraftKings Inc.-8.12%Regulatory non-compliance fines and a shift in CFTC policy regarding prediction markets.
STXSeagate Technology-8.71%Negative market reaction despite strong Q2 results and raised guidance.
ASTSAST SpaceMobile-8.91%Multiple analyst downgrades, insider selling, and concerns over high valuation.
HIMSHims & Hers Health-9.31%
1093.HKCSPC Pharma-9.65%Market disappointment regarding the terms of its AstraZeneca collaboration.
SNDRSchneider National-9.66%Earnings miss due to soft market conditions and disappointing 2026 guidance.
WDCWestern Digital-10.12%"Sell the news" reaction following strong Q2 results and profit-taking by major investors.
CORTCorcept Therapeutics-10.63%Class action investigations regarding alleged securities law violations and FDA regulatory setbacks.
3659.TNEXON Co., Ltd.-10.63%
RBLXRoblox Corporation-13.26%Negative reaction to Q4 loss despite beating lowered analyst estimates.
KLACKLA Corporation-15.24%Supply chain constraints and rising DRAM costs impacting future gross margins.
APPAppLovin Corp.-16.89%Disclosure of an ongoing SEC investigation into the company's data-collection practices.
4307.TNomura Research-17.14%Disappointing full-year guidance and a downgrade to "Strong Sell."
UUnity Software-24.24%Massive software sector sell-off triggered by peer earnings and AI cost fears.

Sector and Macro Themes

  • Software and SaaS Retrenchment: A significant theme across the past two days was a broad and aggressive sell-off in the software sector (notably Unity Software, Samsara, and Wix.com). This was primarily triggered by mixed results from industry leaders like SAP and ServiceNow, alongside mounting fears that the high costs of AI integration will erode margins faster than revenue can compensate.
  • Semiconductor Volatility: While AI demand continues to drive volume, the semiconductor sector faced headwinds from overvaluation concerns (NXP, Microchip), supply chain constraints for critical optics and DRAM (KLA Corp), and geopolitical risks related to U.S.-China export restrictions (Applied Materials).
  • Japanese Gaming and Tech Resilience: Major Japanese entities like Konami, Capcom, and Hitachi reported strong earnings beats and raised guidance, showing resilience compared to their U.S. tech counterparts.
  • Defense and the "Greenland Ultimatum": Macro-level geopolitical tension regarding a trade dispute over Greenland introduced a "risk-off" sentiment for U.S. defense contractors (Kratos, Moog), though some were buoyed by company-specific guidance.
  • Consumer Staples as Safe Havens: Investors rotated into "recession-proof" assets like Campbell’s and PepsiCo as broader market volatility increased.

Company-Specific Drivers

  • AppLovin (APP): Shares plummeted following the disclosure of an ongoing SEC investigation into data-collection practices.
  • Robert Half (RHI): The top gainer benefited from a Q4 EPS beat and a strategic roadmap for AI-driven revenue growth by late 2026.
  • Modine Manufacturing (MOD): Surge driven by a strategic spinoff of its Performance Technologies business to become a pure-play climate solutions company for data centers.
  • Corcept Therapeutics (CORT): Significant decline due to new class action lawsuits following an FDA rejection of their key drug candidate, relacorilant.
  • NuScale Power (SMR): Deep decline after a massive earnings miss and the CFO selling nearly half of their stake.
  • Unity Software (U): Experienced the largest decline in the set due to a "perfect storm" of sector-wide AI cost fears and disappointing peer earnings.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Gained momentum on speculative reports of a potential merger with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

Interesting Market Insights, Facts, and Ideas

The "Agentic Commerce" Thesis: Why Mastercard (MA) is a Data Utility

Despite broader SaaS weakness, a long-term thesis is emerging for Mastercard as a 'structural re-rating' story. Mastercard (MA), trading at 24x FCF with zero debt and 25% EPS growth, is being repositioned by institutional desks not as a card network, but as a 'Data Utility.' The tailwind of Agentic Commerce—where AI agents execute transactions autonomously—is expected to drive significant growth in their Value-Added Services (VAS) segment, which remains underpriced by the market.

Exploring the Musk Conglomerate Merger: Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI Integration

Speculation is reaching a fever pitch regarding a potential merger or strategic cross-ownership structure between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. The objective would be to give Tesla shareholders indirect access to SpaceX’s June IPO and xAI’s 2026 liquidity event. This 'Keiretsu-style' structure aims to solve Tesla's AI-compute sourcing issues while providing SpaceX with a captive, high-volume consumer for Starlink-integrated mobility.

The SaaS "Margin Erosion" Trap: AI Costs vs. FCF Expansion

A brutal consensus is forming: AI is currently a margin killer for software companies. The massive capex required to compete (as seen in Microsoft's $135B 2026 plan) is not yet being offset by incremental revenue. Unity's 24% collapse and Microsoft’s 10% dip suggest that investors are no longer willing to fund 'R&D experiments' without a clear path to FCF expansion. Conversely, Meta’s surge proves that AI spending is only rewarded when it visibly accelerates the core business's ROI (ad targeting).

Japan’s Inbound Tourism & The "Microwave" Experiment: Niche Market Opportunities

Beyond the Nikkei giants, we are tracking Itochu’s aggressive pivot into duty-free financial services to capture Japan’s inbound tourism surge. Additionally, keep an eye on niche listings like 9227.T—described by local desks as a 'science experiment' in microwave tech applications. These experimental listings represent the vast, untapped 'Deep Value' market in Japan that is beginning to attract sophisticated global capital as corporate disclosure standards improve.

The "Banana Republic" Insider Signal: Why Insider Selling Matters

Insider selling has reached a critical threshold. Significant liquidations at Wayfair (CEO/Co-founder sold $32M), Monolithic Power ($18M), and Intuit (CEO sold 75% of shares) suggest that those with the most information believe we are at a valuation local maximum. When combined with the '401k liquidity trap' theory, the setup favors a rotation into 'Real Assets' or defensive cash-flow compounders like Mastercard and Colgate.

Happy Alpha Hunt! - Distilla

Disclaimer: This content is generated using AI, synthesizing public data (filings, reports, news) and social media (Reddit, X). It may contain errors, inaccuracies, or hallucinations. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. This newsletter is for informational purposes only; please consult a qualified professional and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.