Daily Market Brief - Jan 30, 2026
Editor's Notes:
- A 10% decline for MSFT is a rare sight. We have been bearish on US software over the last few weeks newsletters, and sentiment has been building toward this point. Will we see trimmed CapEx and R&D at Microsoft or OpenAI? I don't think so - the stakes are too high for any of the top model players to take a step back. AGI has become a trillion-dollar race. Consequently, we will continue to see high volatility; the release of GPT-6 (likely in Q3) will be one of the most significant events for the entire capital market.
- Meanwhile, the inflow into the Chinese market will likely continue. The rapid recovery in developer stocks yesterday (and likely today) reflects a growing sentiment that the real estate market is finally bottoming out. Now, the pivot point is whether consumer spending will return. If it does, expect a rapid rally similar to what we saw early last year.
Market sentiment is currently driven by a stark dichotomy in AI's impact: while AI infrastructure and ad revenue see gains, "capital trap" concerns and SaaS obsolescence fears are impacting valuations in the US. Simultaneously, Japan navigates macro tail-risks with emerging value in corporate governance shifts, and Hong Kong/China experience a powerful rally fueled by stimulus hopes and tech catch-up trades.
What are the overall market themes, sentiment, and key debates for investors?
United States: The AI "Capital Trap" vs. SaaS Obsolescence
The narrative in the US has bifurcated into a high-stakes debate over AI monetization. While Meta's (META) +10.4% move validated AI’s ability to drive immediate ad revenue, Microsoft’s (MSFT) -10% drawdown highlights a growing "capital trap" thesis. Investors are increasingly wary of the $115B-$135B FY26 CapEx projections that threaten to push Free Cash Flow (FCF) toward zero, raising the specter of technological obsolescence before these investments reach full payout.
Crucially, we are seeing a structural rotation away from seat-based SaaS models (HUBS, PATH, DOCU). The consensus among professional desks is that AI agents will inevitably erode per-seat pricing power, making legacy SaaS valuations untenable. Conversely, AI infrastructure—specifically thermal management (TT) and power solutions—remains the high-conviction play as the trade shifts from "model-centric" to "physical-intensive."
Japan: Macro Tail-Risks and Value Pockets
Sentiment remains fragile despite the Nikkei’s technical gains. The core debate centers on a "Godzilla-sized" market move driven by JGB yield pressures and the potential unwinding of global carry trades. While many large-caps are technically oversold (RSI < 30), a "ticking time bomb" scenario regarding potential debt defaults looms over equity confidence. We are closely watching the governance pivot; the surge in Toyota (TM) and Sony (SONY) suggests that the dismantling of cross-shareholdings is finally providing the structural catalyst long-awaited by value hunters.
Hong Kong & China: The Great Rotation and Property Relief
The Hang Seng is experiencing a powerful seven-day rally, signaling a massive short squeeze and overseas fund inflows. The property sector (Sunac, Shimao) is seeing 20%+ gains on mainland stimulus expectations, though we view this as tactical rather than structural. In tech, a "catch-up" trade is favoring Tencent and Kuaishou, while Alibaba and Baidu are lagging due to skepticism over their AI ROI. Watch the JD.com logistics IPO as a litmus test for market liquidity and risk appetite for new Chinese equity issues.
What were the notable big stock moves, earnings, and key developments?
| Symbol | Company Short Name | Price Move | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOD | Modine Manufacturing | +20.30% | Beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates; received multiple analyst upgrades and price target increases. |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | +18.70% | Provided bullish 2026 guidance with EPS projections significantly exceeding Wall Street consensus. |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean | +18.65% | Reported record earnings and provided optimistic 2026 guidance driven by strong cruise demand. |
| META | Meta Platforms | +10.40% | Announced AI-powered subscriptions and a $6 billion infrastructure partnership with Corning. |
| NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line | +10.25% | Lifted by peer earnings and positive guidance for pre-pandemic load factor recovery by 2026. |
| CCL | Carnival Corporation | +8.46% | Reinstated dividends and signaled potential share repurchases following significant debt reduction. |
| TT | Trane Technologies | +8.08% | Reported strong Q4 earnings, record backlog, and partnership with NVIDIA for AI thermal management. |
| 1880.HK | China Tourism Duty Free | +7.60% | Announced strategic acquisition of DFS’s travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau. |
| VIK | Viking Holdings | +6.69% | Gained on positive sentiment across the cruise sector following Royal Caribbean's upbeat outlook. |
| HXL | Hexcel | +5.40% | Beat Q4 estimates behind strong commercial aerospace and defense sales. |
| AOS | A. O. Smith | +5.30% | Reported solid FY2025 earnings and positive 2026 guidance following the Leonard Valve acquisition. |
| VFC | V.F. Corporation | +5.23% | Announced significant debt reduction through note prepayment and provided stable margin guidance. |
| 2020.HK | ANTA Sports | +5.23% | Announced strategic acquisition of a 29.06% stake in Puma SE. |
| 0168.HK | Tsingtao Brewery | +5.19% | |
| 6857.T | Advantest | +5.17% | Significantly raised full-year guidance due to robust demand for AI-related semiconductor testers. |
| IBM | IBM | +5.13% | Beat Q4 estimates and provided strong 2026 guidance fueled by software and AI growth. |
| CHRW | C.H. Robinson | +5.12% | Surpassed EPS estimates through aggressive cost controls and headcount reductions despite a revenue miss. |
| 6969.HK | Smoore International | +5.02% | Driven by sector optimism and anticipated regulatory clarity in the electronic cigarette market. |
| APP | AppLovin | +4.96% | Upgraded to "Buy" on confidence in 2026 e-commerce revenue and AI ad-optimizer performance. |
| HON | Honeywell | +4.89% | Strong Q4 performance and 2026 guidance supported by aerospace demand and record backlog. |
| CHTR | Charter Communications | +4.76% | Partnered with AWS for generative AI applications to enhance operational efficiency. |
| LBRDK | Liberty Broadband | +4.72% | |
| 6370.T | Kurita Water | +4.63% | Favorable wastewater treatment market growth forecasts and new partnership with Samsung Engineering. |
| T | AT&T | +4.40% | Announced accelerated fiber buildout and acquisition of Lumen’s fiber assets. |
| DAR | Darling Ingredients | +4.27% | Entered merger agreement for collagen segments and received price target increase from JPMorgan. |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand | +4.25% | Benefited from positive growth forecasts across compressed air and industrial winch markets. |
| CVNA | Carvana | +4.24% | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric | +4.24% | Reported Q3 earnings beat and positive outlook for robotic welding and automation markets. |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | +4.23% | Announced record $194 billion backlog and strong 2026 profit growth guidance. |
| 1209.HK | CR Mixc Lifestyle | +4.21% | |
| HIMS | Hims & Hers Health | +4.19% | Surged on heavy call option activity and launch of new Super Bowl ad campaign. |
| CNC | Centene | +4.06% | Rebounded following positive long-term free cash flow projections and attractive valuation metrics. |
| 2331.HK | Li Ning | +3.96% | |
| LFUS | Littelfuse | +3.90% | Lifted by positive growth projections for the EV Battery Disconnect Unit market. |
| LCID | Lucid Group | +3.85% | Announced $300 million investment and strategic alliance with Uber for robotaxis. |
| 3998.HK | Bosideng | +3.70% | Gained luxury market share in China as consumers shift toward high-end domestic brands. |
| 1157.HK | Zoomlion | +3.59% | Positive outlook for 5G excavation robots and strong tower crane performance. |
| LRCX | Lam Research | +3.59% | Reported strong Q4 results and optimistic guidance driven by AI semiconductor demand. |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | +3.53% | Upgraded by analysts expecting double-digit revenue growth from semiconductor capital equipment. |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin | +3.51% | Reported record sales, earnings beat, and raised fiscal 2026 guidance. |
| ARW | Arrow Electronics | +3.50% | |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle | +3.47% | |
| MRNA | Moderna | +3.44% | Stock rose following the launch of the mRESVIA RSV vaccine. |
| CAT | Caterpillar | +3.41% | Reported record revenue and expansion of AI partnerships with NVIDIA. |
| 6186.HK | China Feihe | +3.39% | |
| RRX | Regal Rexnord | +3.39% | Upgraded by Keybanc; announced quarterly dividend and data center expansion plans. |
| 7203.T | Toyota Motor | +3.35% | Strong 2025 U.S. sales and new AI partnerships for autonomous driving. |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | +3.32% | Priced €1.0 billion senior notes to refinance existing debt. |
| 2319.HK | China Mengniu Dairy | +3.28% | |
| CARR | Carrier Global | +3.25% | Lifted by sustainable climate acquisitions and a new $5 billion share buyback program. |
| PHM | PulteGroup | +3.24% | Increased dividend and pivoted strategy toward higher-margin active adult communities. |
| 6862.HK | Haidilao | +3.22% | Market reacted to long-term U.S. market expansion strategy. |
| LYFT | Lyft | +3.20% | Announced "Lyft Teen" service launch and robotaxi expansion into London. |
| TKO | TKO Group | +3.19% | Secured exclusive $1.6 billion rights deal with Disney for Wrestlemania. |
| 1876.HK | Budweiser APAC | +3.12% | |
| 0291.HK | China Resources Beer | +3.10% | Leadership changes and analyst anticipation of a recovery in 2026. |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies | +3.09% | Provided guidance in line with estimates and cited strong hydrogen market outlook. |
| JCI | Johnson Controls | +3.03% | Benefiting from AI-driven HVAC demand and positive U.S. chiller market growth. |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech | +3.02% | Raised FY2026 guidance and approved 12% dividend increase. |
| 6301.T | Komatsu | +3.01% | Upgraded outlook for high-capacity forklifts and 5G excavation robots. |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories | +3.01% | Beat Q1 earnings and expanded Dolby Atmos integration into automotive sectors. |
| 8267.T | Aeon Co. | -3.03% | |
| TSEM | Tower Semiconductor | -3.04% | |
| KMX | CarMax | -3.05% | Downgraded to "Neutral" by Mizuho with a significant price target reduction. |
| 6618.HK | JD Health | -3.07% | |
| BA | Boeing | -3.13% | Massive Q4 earnings miss and ongoing certification delays for 737 Max programs. |
| 3659.T | NEXON | -3.19% | Concluded share buyback program and suffered coordinated DDoS attacks on major games. |
| BEPC | Brookfield Renewable | -3.22% | Major institutional investor reduced stake significantly. |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab | -3.26% | Faced pressure after structural failure of Neutron rocket tank during testing. |
| 1698.HK | Tencent Music | -3.28% | |
| WAY | Waystar | -3.29% | Insider selling and investor concerns regarding recent Iodine Software acquisition. |
| WIX | Wix.com | -3.30% | Price correction following previous buyback-driven surge. |
| MANH | Manhattan Associates | -3.33% | Price target lowered by DA Davidson citing moderating optimism. |
| FFIV | F5, Inc. | -3.34% | |
| 0241.HK | Alibaba Health | -3.35% | |
| ACN | Accenture | -3.41% | Faced selling pressure over rising talent costs and competitive pricing in AI services. |
| IOT | Samsara | -3.42% | Issued FY2026 EPS guidance below Wall Street consensus estimates. |
| 9843.T | Nitori Holdings | -3.42% | General decline ahead of anticipated February earnings report. |
| TSLA | Tesla | -3.45% | Reported first annual revenue decline and Q4 delivery miss amid increased competition. |
| PLTR | Palantir | -3.49% | Market sold off despite raised revenue guidance and AI demand. |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | -3.49% | Price target lowered; concerns over sustained performance compared to peers. |
| GME | GameStop | -3.51% | Shares entered "overbought territory" following Michael Burry investment; concerns over CEO incentive dilution. |
| 6098.T | Recruit Holdings | -3.51% | Cautious sentiment following CEO comments on AI’s uncertain ROI in labor markets. |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts | -3.52% | Price target cut due to "choppy" Macau performance and high debt levels. |
| GEN | Gen Digital | -3.59% | Price target reduced by RBC Capital to $29. |
| 0981.HK | SMIC | -3.65% | Broad downturn in chip stocks and technical sell signals. |
| WM | Waste Management | -3.66% | EPS decline year-over-year and price target reduction by Stifel. |
| VRSN | VeriSign | -3.66% | Significant reduction in institutional ownership by Texas Teacher Retirement System. |
| SE | Sea Limited | -3.67% | |
| VEEV | Veeva Systems | -3.67% | Initiated with "Sell" rating at Goldman Sachs; significant institutional divestment. |
| 9697.T | Capcom | -3.74% | |
| ZM | Zoom Communications | -3.78% | Profit-taking following earnings beat and insider stock sale. |
| PAYC | Paycom Software | -3.80% | Target price cut by Jefferies and insider selling by CFO. |
| 6273.T | SMC Corporation | -3.88% | |
| 3898.HK | Zhuzhou CRRC | -3.89% | |
| ETSY | Etsy | -3.92% | Price target reduced and notable insider selling by Chief Accounting Officer. |
| GKOS | Glaukos | -3.93% | Market reacted negatively to insider selling by the CFO. |
| TENB | Tenable | -3.96% | Price target cut and slowing sales growth guidance; major director stock sale. |
| GDDY | GoDaddy | -3.98% | Lawsuit regarding domain hijacking and several analyst price target reductions. |
| KTOS | Kratos Defense | -4.00% | Negative technical indicators, insider selling, and position trimming by ARK Invest. |
| AN | AutoNation | -4.10% | "Sell the news" reaction following earnings beat and share buyback announcement. |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | -4.10% | Concerns over $25 billion CyberArk acquisition and intensified competition from Cisco. |
| BBWI | Bath & Body Works | -4.16% | Major fund liquidated entire stake following poor customer satisfaction and revenue declines. |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | -4.20% | Moody’s outlook downgraded to stable; slower recovery in automotive/industrial sectors. |
| INSP | Inspire Medical | -4.23% | Substantial analyst downgrade and price target cut from $175 to $90. |
| 6181.HK | Laopu Gold | -4.26% | |
| 1519.HK | J&T Global Express | -4.27% | |
| EPAM | EPAM Systems | -4.32% | Pressured by insider selling and significant institutional stake reduction. |
| LULU | lululemon | -4.33% | Quality control issues, CEO departure, and activist investor pressure from Elliott Management. |
| DOCU | DocuSign | -4.33% | Competitive pressure from AI contract tools despite a strong earnings beat. |
| U | Unity Software | -4.38% | |
| ALAB | Astera Labs | -4.43% | Oriental Harbor Investment Fund completely divested its position in the company. |
| 6146.T | Disco Corporation | -4.46% | |
| 6920.T | Lasertec | -4.49% | Position trimming ahead of earnings; high valuation concerns relative to sector. |
| CLBT | Cellebrite | -4.50% | |
| 6324.T | Harmonic Drive | -4.55% | Multi-year net income decline and poor capital allocation priorities. |
| GTLB | GitLab | -4.63% | Price fell despite new AI product launch and increased ARK Investment stake. |
| KEX | Kirby Corporation | -4.65% | Vague 2026 guidance and profit-taking following record 2025 results. |
| ADSK | Autodesk | -4.71% | Cautious industry outlook due to long sales payback periods and margin stagnation. |
| 0027.HK | Galaxy Entertainment | -4.79% | |
| WHR | Whirlpool | -4.83% | Downgraded to "Sell" citing tariff impacts on margins and over-levered balance sheet. |
| 4702 | Bruker | -4.98% | |
| CSGP | CoStar Group | -5.02% | Targeted by activist Third Point LLC for "failed" residential real estate expansion. |
| 1072.HK | Dongfang Electric | -5.03% | |
| PTC | PTC Inc. | -5.21% | Price target lowered by Citigroup ahead of Q1 earnings. |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | -5.24% | Consensus EPS estimates revised lower; significant insider selling flagged. |
| MO | Altria Group | -5.34% | Missed Q4 revenue estimates and reported sharp declines in cigarette shipping volumes. |
| 4465 | Bloom Energy | -5.37% | |
| VERX | Vertex, Inc. | -5.41% | Uncertainty following the appointment of a new CEO. |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy | -5.49% | Announced workforce reduction of 160 employees and received analyst price target cuts. |
| NTNX | Nutanix | -5.55% | Downgraded by Morgan Stanley on diminishing 2026 growth prospects. |
| CDNS | Cadence Design | -5.56% | Perceived talent loss to Intel and omission from major "best stocks" recommendations. |
| OKTA | Okta | -5.57% | Target price cut and reports of slowing demand for core products. |
| IONQ | IonQ | -5.59% | Investor concerns over cash burn related to $1.8 billion strategic acquisitions. |
| SNAP | Snap Inc. | -5.61% | Legal trial regarding youth addiction and Australian regulatory headwinds. |
| 1347.HK | Hua Hong Semi | -5.63% | Broad Chinese chip sector downturn and structural "chip inflation" concerns. |
| 8035.T | Tokyo Electron | -5.64% | |
| 9660.HK | Horizon Robotics | -5.73% | |
| S | SentinelOne | -5.76% | Price target cuts and increased competition from Cisco-Splunk merger. |
| IT | Gartner | -5.88% | Analysts revised Q4 EPS estimates lower despite previous quarter’s beat. |
| IP | International Paper | -6.00% | Reported multi-billion dollar losses due to goodwill impairment and restructuring. |
| PCTY | Paylocity | -6.07% | Downgraded to "Equal Weight" by Barclays. |
| CRM | Salesforce | -6.09% | "Sell the news" reaction following a major U.S. Army contract and earnings beat. |
| PATH | UiPath | -6.09% | Competitive pressure from GenAI tools and major cloud service providers. |
| BSY | Bentley Systems | -6.10% | Competitive concerns following CoStar’s acquisition of Matterport. |
| SNPS | Synopsys | -6.13% | CEO warned of prolonged memory chip shortages impacting AI demand through 2027. |
| 3064.T | MonotaRO | -6.17% | |
| WK | Workiva | -6.18% | Forward guidance perceived as conservative despite beating Q4 expectations. |
| ZS | Zscaler | -6.23% | Price target lowered; increased competitive pricing from major cloud providers. |
| SOUN | SoundHound AI | -6.30% | Insider selling and "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior after partnership announcements. |
| HRI | Herc Holdings | -6.32% | Concerns over high debt-to-EBITDA ratio and institutional stake reduction. |
| FDS | FactSet Research | -6.33% | Reached 52-week low on concerns of AI disruption and rising tech expenses. |
| INTU | Intuit | -6.63% | Downgraded to "Equal-Weight" by Wells Fargo. |
| 5061 | Freshworks | -6.67% | |
| BILL | BILL Holdings | -6.79% | Investor uncertainty and profit-taking ahead of Q2 earnings release. |
| DT | Dynatrace | -6.86% | Significant insider selling and intensified competition in AI-powered observability. |
| 4406 | Axon Enterprise | -7.33% | |
| 1928.HK | Sands China | -7.45% | Reported margin contraction due to high operating costs and shift in player mix. |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | -7.58% | Earnings miss and weak 2026 outlook citing moderated discretionary demand and tariffs. |
| SMR | NuScale Power | -7.62% | Reported substantial losses and high expenses relative to earnings. |
| WDAY | Workday | -7.65% | Price target reduced by Barclays as part of a software sector recalibration. |
| SNOW | Snowflake | -7.70% | Market correction despite strong product revenue growth and AI platform launch. |
| ESTC | Elastic N.V. | -7.71% | Multiple price target reductions and notable insider selling. |
| 6532.T | Baycurrent | -8.17% | Valuation risk and slight margin compression led to liquidation selling. |
| RBRK | Rubrik | -8.26% | Price target lowered by Barclays from $120 to $100. |
| MNDY | monday.com | -8.39% | Position divestment by major institutional investors. |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | -8.39% | Missed EPS estimates due to significant non-cash asset impairment charges. |
| VRNS | Varonis Systems | -8.50% | Facing class action lawsuits regarding misleading statements about SaaS transitions. |
| CSW | CSW Industrials | -8.53% | Organic revenue decline and margin contraction from material cost inflation. |
| DDOG | Datadog | -8.81% | Price target cut significantly by Scotiabank; CTO sold 12.5% of ownership. |
| TWLO | Twilio | -8.94% | Major stake reduction (58%) by JPMorgan. |
| MDB | MongoDB | -9.01% | Market reaction suggests growth expectations were not fully met despite earnings beat. |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies | -9.33% | Price target cut by $55 and institutional stake reduction. |
| PEGA | Pegasystems | -9.58% | Significant stake reduction by Kornitzer Capital Management. |
| MSTR | Strategy Inc | -9.63% | Concerns over shareholder dilution from Bitcoin acquisitions and high debt. |
| NOW | ServiceNow | -9.94% | Concerns over AI disruption and revenue growth sustainability following Armis acquisition. |
| MSFT | Microsoft | -9.99% | Azure growth slowdown and high AI-related capital expenditures spooked investors. |
| 4468 | First Solar | -10.18% | |
| TEAM | Atlassian | -10.67% | Insider selling and market correction despite positive AWS integration news. |
| HUBS | HubSpot | -11.22% | Massive price target cuts and fears of AI disrupting seat-based software models. |
| TTAN | ServiceTitan | -11.51% | Competitive pressure from QuoteIQ and valuation concerns. |
| SATS | EchoStar | -11.75% | Spectrum license sales to SpaceX raised competitive concerns; insider selling. |
| URI | United Rentals | -12.86% | Earnings miss and margin contraction due to inflation and depreciation. |
| KVYO | Klaviyo | -13.25% | Price target reduction, insider selling, and major institutional stake reduction. |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands | -13.96% | High debt-to-equity ratio and reduced EBITDA projections for Macau operations. |
What are the key sector and macro themes?
- AI Infrastructure vs. Disruption: A major divide exists in tech. Companies providing AI infrastructure (META, IBM, Advantest) are seeing surges, while SaaS companies with seat-based models (HUBS, PATH, DOCU) are facing massive sell-offs due to fears of AI disrupting their core value proposition.
- Travel & Leisure Strength: Cruise lines (RCL, NCLH, CCL) and legacy airlines (LUV) are showing significant strength in forward guidance and booking momentum, though regional margin pressures in Macau are weighing on casino operators (LVS, WYNN).
- Aerospace Momentum: The aerospace sector remains a bright spot, with record backlogs and strong demand reported by major players like Lockheed Martin and Honeywell.
- Macro Headwinds: Tariffs and high interest rates are being cited as primary drivers for margin compression in the consumer discretionary and retail sectors (TSCO, WHR, LULU).
What are the company-specific drivers of market moves?
- Earnings and Guidance: Record-breaking guidance propelled Southwest Airlines and Modine Manufacturing, while disappointing guidance or misses hit Microsoft, Boeing, and Altria.
- Strategic M&A: Strategic acquisitions drove positive sentiment for ANTA Sports and China Tourism, whereas large-scale acquisitions by Palo Alto Networks and IonQ raised concerns about leverage and cash burn.
- Insider and Institutional Activity: Large divestments by major funds (JPMorgan selling Twilio, ARK trimming Kratos) and insider selling (Datadog, Klaviyo, Dynatrace) served as strong negative catalysts.
- Operational Failures & Governance: Boeing (regulatory/production delays), Rocket Lab (test failure), and Lululemon (CEO exit/product quality issues) suffered from internal operational and leadership setbacks.
- Legal & Activist Pressure: Lawsuits regarding youth addiction (Snap) and SaaS transition claims (Varonis) alongside activist campaigns (CoStar, Lululemon) created significant downward pressure.
What are some interesting comments, facts, and ideas for investors?
- Tesla’s Strategic Pivot: Elon Musk’s announcement to kill Model S/X production to focus on Optimus robotics is a "burn the boats" moment. With $20B being funneled into xAI, Tesla is officially no longer an auto company in management's eyes, but a "physical AI" venture. Skepticism is high—given the 2019 robotaxi promises—but the sheer scale of the xAI investment makes this a binary bet on the future of humanoid robotics.
- The Palantir Reverse DCF: A notable sell-side analysis suggests that at $157, PLTR requires a 51.5% FCF CAGR for the next decade. Given the $3B in insider selling by Karp and Thiel, the "sell/avoid" conviction is growing among institutional desks despite the retail fervor.
- Nvidia’s China Collapse: US sanctions are working. Nvidia’s China market share is projected to drop from 66% to 8% by early 2026. This isn't just a loss of revenue; it's a massive gift to domestic Chinese firms who are now capturing 80% of the local market, accelerating their own technological maturity.
- Adobe as a Contrarian AI Play: While other SaaS names are being sold off, a compelling thesis is emerging for ADBE. Adoption of "Firefly" is being seen as an ARPU expander rather than a headwind, with a projected 45% upside if the market realizes Adobe’s enterprise compliance is a moat that generative AI startups can’t easily cross.
- Deep Value in Japan (Tsutsumi Jewelry): In a market obsessed with chips, 7937.T is being pitched as a "hidden gold" play. Net cash exceeds 2x the market cap of floating shares. With rising gold prices boosting inventory value and management hoarding cash, an MBO/delisting path is the likely end-game for minority shareholders.
- SpaceX IPO Rumors: June 2026 is the whispered date for a $1.5T valuation IPO aiming to raise $50B. This would be the largest liquidity event in history, potentially draining capital from existing aerospace and tech laggards.
- The "530 Accounts": A new policy play for children born after Jan 1, 2025, involves a $1,000 "Trump account" gift. This capital may be restricted or it could create a new "forced" inflow into US equity indices over the next two decades.
Happy Alpha Hunt! - Distilla
Disclaimer: This content is generated using AI, synthesizing public data (filings, reports, news) and social media (Reddit, X). It may contain errors, inaccuracies, or hallucinations. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. This newsletter is for informational purposes only; please consult a qualified professional and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.