Investment

Campbell's (CPB) Under Scrutiny: Financials, Crisis & Strategy Shifts (Sept-Dec 2025) - Dec 07, 2025

Distilla AI

07 Dec 2025 — 11 min read

Below we synthesized recent news concerning Campbells Company (CPB) to provide a comprehensive overview of its operational, financial, and strategic developments. The period under review (September-December 2025) highlights significant challenges, strategic shifts, management changes, and a notable PR crisis, alongside routine financial announcements and market assessments.

Chronological Narrative of Key Events

September 2025

Early September: Several reputable brokers adjusted their ratings and price targets for CPB. UBS Group maintained a "sell" rating while lowering its price target from $33.00 to $30.00 (August 29th). TD Cowen maintained a "hold" rating and raised its price target from $29.00 to $31.00 (September 4th). Bank of America maintained an "underperform" rating but raised its price target from $29.00 to $30.00 (September 4th). Morgan Stanley maintained an "equal weight" rating and increased its price target from $32.00 to $33.00 (September 5th). Piper Sandler reiterated a "neutral" rating but lowered its price target from $35.00 to $34.00 (August 7th).
September 3rd: Campbell's latest earnings report showed EPS of $0.62, beating the consensus of $0.57, but revenue of $2.32 billion missed the $2.33 billion estimate, though it represented a 1.2% year-over-year increase. The company also set its FY2026 EPS guidance at $2.40-$2.55, significantly below analysts' current year consensus of $3.15.
September 11th: Management forecast annual sales and profit below Wall Street estimates for the upcoming fiscal year, citing weak demand and higher costs from tariffs.
September 12th: Campbell's announced plans to increase prices on consumer goods in the coming months, attributing this directly to persistent tariff-related cost pressures on steel and aluminum that could no longer be absorbed.
September 15th: In a significant ESG and legal development, Campbell Soup Supply Company admitted to over 5,400 violations of the Clean Water Act between April 2018 and December 2024 at its Napoleon, Ohio plant. These violations involved discharging pollutants into the Maumee River, contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. The company agreed not to contest claims in a lawsuit filed by environmental groups.
September 17th: Campbell's shifted some leadership roles to improve operational efficiency and financial performance, though these changes had not yet boosted share price momentum.
September 25th: Wells Fargo maintained an "equal weight" rating and raised its price target from $32.00 to $34.00.
September 25th: Campbell's declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, payable November 3rd (ex-dividend October 2nd), representing an annualized dividend of $1.56 and a payout ratio of 78.00%.
September 29th: Campbell's detailed a significant strategic shift: its core soup lineup now accounts for 25% of sales (down from 40% in FY2017), while Snacks contribute 50% (up from under 30%). The company aims to unlock an additional $250 million in savings by FY2028 (building on $950 million already realized) and is pursuing growth through acquisitions, including the recent acquisition of Sovos Brands, which adds over $1 billion in annual sales.
September 30th: Analysts highlighted a negative profitability inflection point for Campbell's over the past three years, with 1.6% EPS growth lagging revenue, and projected a 3% revenue decline for the next 12 months due to shrinking unit sales.

October 2025

October 1st: Campbell's divested its international snacking operations, meaning nearly all its sales now come from the domestic market. In a positive competitive dynamics shift, its canned dinner division gained market share as consumers moved away from plant-based alternatives due to taste, texture, high prices, and "ultra-processed" perceptions.
October 3rd: Jim Cramer commented that Campbell's, with its dividend yield just under 5%, could be a potential takeover target, though he questioned its investment appeal otherwise.
October 3rd: Campbell's was removed from the FTSE All-World Index.
October 3rd: The company raised its cost savings target to $375 million, aiming to improve operational efficiency, bolster net margins, and drive earnings growth.
October 7th: Todd Cunfer was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective October 20th, replacing Carrie Anderson. Cunfer brings over 25 years of experience from Freshpet, Simply Good Foods, and Hershey. His appointment is expected to support Campbell's growth strategy.
October 8th: Campbell's successfully launched a Milano White Chocolate limited-edition cookie, which reportedly boosted Milano consumption by 27%.
October 13th: Campbell Soup Company introduced new frozen fruit blends fortified with vitamins and antioxidants, aiming for healthy, on-the-go snacking.
October 16th: Campbell's detailed its FY2026 strategy: focus on topline growth through increased marketing/innovation, productivity, and accelerated cost savings to counter inflation and tariffs. The strategy also emphasizes at-home meal solutions like soups and pasta sauces.
October 18th: Bernstein reaffirmed a "Buy" rating on Campbell's stock with a price target of $39.00 (October 14th), citing steady demand for core brands, cost control, and pricing initiatives. This led to a 1.8% rise in shares.
October 31st: Campbell's was recognized as one of the "Most Ethical Companies across America" for its focus on reducing food waste, sustainable packaging, hunger relief, and community reinvestment. The company also announced diversification into frozen pastries and an investment in premium cookie segments.

November 2025

November 6th: Campbell's launched a limited-edition 'Sides Collection' (designer bags) in collaboration with Cynthia Rowley and Kit Keenan. For each $99 bag sold, 99 cans of soup are donated to Feeding America, linking marketing with a social cause.
November 7th: Management issued cautious forward guidance for FY2026, expecting flat to declining sales and earnings, making investors wary. This guidance (FY26 EPS $2.40-$2.55) is notably lower than current fiscal year analyst expectations.
November 18th: At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, all nominated directors were re-elected, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for FY2026, and executive compensation was approved. Two shareholder proposals did not pass.
November 18th: Campbell's declared its next quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, payable February 2, 2026 (ex-dividend January 8, 2026), with an annualized dividend of $1.56, and analysts anticipating a yield increase to 5.03% for 2026.
November 22nd-24th: A major PR crisis erupted after a former security analyst, Robert Garza, sued Campbell's for wrongful termination and discrimination. Garza alleged he was fired for reporting VP Martin Bally's racist remarks about Indian colleagues, disparaging comments about company products ("shit for poor people," "bioengineered meat," "3D printed chicken"), and drug use. Bally was subsequently terminated on November 25th. The Florida Attorney General launched an investigation into Campbell's product quality following Bally's comments, particularly concerning claims about "lab-grown meat." This event led to significant negative public sentiment, online backlash, and a decline in Campbell's stock.
November 25th: Campbell's announced the closure of its Pacific Foods manufacturing plant in Tualatin, Oregon, resulting in 330 layoffs by Summer 2026.
November 26th: The company reported a slight miss in its (Q4 FY25) revenue expectations, with 1% year-over-year sales growth but a 3% decline in organic net sales. The stock declined 27.62% YTD.
November 27th: Further lawsuits were reported regarding the authenticity of chicken in soup products, stemming from the leaked audio.

December 2025

December 5th: Campbell's is predicted to report a Q1 Fiscal 2026 earnings beat on December 9th. Consensus EPS is 73 cents (18% drop YoY), revenues $2.66 billion (4.1% drop YoY). Meals & Beverages are expected to perform well, but the Snacks business is projected to decline, and tariffs/increased marketing spend are expected to pressure profitability.
December 5th: Morgan Stanley decreased its price target from $33.00 to $30.00 while maintaining an "Equal-Weight" rating.
December 5th: Beutel Goodman & Co Ltd. significantly decreased its holdings by selling 201,861 shares, reducing its stake to $233.7 million. Conversely, Allworth Financial LP increased its stake by 4.4%, purchasing 718 shares valued at $538,000. Franklin Resources Inc. also reduced its stake by selling 93,033 shares valued at $1.5 million.
December 9th: Campbell's is scheduled to report its First Quarter Fiscal 2026 financial results.

Synthesis by Topic

Financial Performance & Outlook

Latest Reported Earnings (Q4 Fiscal 2025, reported in September): Campbell's demonstrated mixed performance. EPS beat estimates ($0.62 vs $0.57 consensus), but revenue slightly missed expectations ($2.32 billion vs $2.33 billion consensus), despite a 1.2% year-over-year increase. Organic net sales declined by 3%.

FY2026 Guidance: Management issued "cautious" forward guidance for FY2026, anticipating flat to declining sales and earnings. The FY2026 EPS guidance range is set at $2.40-$2.55, which is notably below analysts' consensus of $3.15 for the "current fiscal year".

Q1 Fiscal 2026 Outlook (Upcoming, December 9th): Analysts predict a Q1 FY26 earnings beat. However, consensus estimates still project a revenue decline of 4.1% ($2.66 billion) and an EPS drop of 16.9% ($0.73) year-over-year. Pressures from tariffs and increased marketing spend are expected to contribute to a 70-basis-point contraction in adjusted gross margin, with the Snacks business predicted to decline by 2.7% in unit sales. The Meals & Beverages division is expected to benefit from at-home cooking trends.

Profitability Concerns: Analysts highlight a negative profitability inflection point over the past 2-3 years, with incremental sales proving less profitable and 1.6% annual EPS growth lagging revenue gains. The company also faces rising input costs, particularly from steel and aluminum tariffs, which could undermine margin gains.

Cost Savings: To counter these pressures, Campbell's has increased its cost savings target to $375 million, aiming to improve operational efficiency, bolster net margins, and drive earnings growth. This builds on $950 million already realized.

Strategic Direction & Product Development

Portfolio Diversification: Campbell's has significantly reshaped its product portfolio, moving beyond its traditional soup-centric image. The company formally changed its name to "The Campbell's Company" in September 2024 to reflect this broader focus. Core soup now accounts for 25% of sales (down from 40% in FY2017), while Snacks have grown to 50% (up from under 30%). This strategy includes brands like Pace, Prego, V8, Goldfish, Lance, and Pepperidge Farm.

M&A and Divestment: The company recently acquired Sovos Brands, adding over $1 billion in annual sales, aligning with its growth-through-acquisition strategy. Conversely, it divested its international snacking operations, concentrating sales in the domestic market.

Innovation & Consumer Trends:

Snacks: Despite a slowdown in the overall snacks category due to consumers shifting to healthier options, Campbell's is responding by introducing new flavors (e.g., Milano White Chocolate cookie, boosting consumption by 27%) and focusing on health and wellness. Investments are also being made in premium cookie segments (Pepperidge Farm) and new natural savory flavor blends. The U.S. savory snacks market is projected for strong growth (7.15% CAGR to $82.25 billion by 2033).
Meals & Beverages: The company is emphasizing at-home meal solutions like soups and pasta sauces. Its canned dinner division (e.g., Hamburger Helper) is gaining traction as consumers shift away from plant-based meat alternatives due to taste, price, and "ultra-processed" perceptions. Campbell's is a leader in the growing global soup ($16.7 billion by 2033, 3.52% CAGR) and U.S. broth markets ("massive growth" by 2032), with a focus on clean-label, organic, and sustainable products.
New Products: Launched frozen fruit blends (July 2025) for healthy snacking and diversifying into frozen pastries to align with healthier/sustainable options. Also focusing on kosher product reformulation and expanding brown sugar use in sauces/ready-meals.

Operational Efficiency: Efforts include improving operating efficiencies across the supply chain and manufacturing network, and increasing marketing spend for brands. The company announced the closure of its Pacific Foods plant in Tualatin, Oregon, impacting 330 workers.

Investor Sentiment & Analyst Coverage

Stock Performance: CPB's stock retreated as defensive food stocks faced pressure during broader market rallies. It was down approximately 27.62% year-to-date (as of late November), with some reports attributing declines to Wall Street's focus shifting to AI and away from traditional consumer goods. Short sellers increased positions in October due to economic concerns.

Dividend: Campbell's maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, with an annualized dividend of $1.56, representing a yield of approximately 5.0%-5.3% and a payout ratio of 78.00%. Concerns were raised that the company may not have sufficient earnings to cover its dividend in the future, though analysts anticipate a slight increase in dividend for 2026 ($1.56 per share, 5.03% yield).

Analyst Ratings:

UBS Group: "Sell" rating, target $30.00 (from $33.00).
Bank of America: "Underperform" rating, target $30.00 (from $29.00).
Piper Sandler: "Neutral" rating, target $34.00 (from $35.00).
Stifel Nicolaus: "Hold" rating, target $34.00 (from $38.00).
DA Davidson: "Neutral" rating, target $30.00 (from $39.00).
Morgan Stanley: "Equal-Weight" rating, target $33.00 (from $32.00).
TD Cowen: "Hold" rating, target $31.00 (from $29.00).
Wells Fargo: "Equal Weight" rating, target $34.00 (from $32.00).
JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Initiated with "Neutral" rating, target $33.00.
Jefferies Financial Group: "Buy" rating, target $37.00 (from $40.00).
Bernstein: "Buy" rating, target $39.00 (from $38.00).
Argus: Downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold".
General analyst consensus price targets vary, with some suggesting potential upside to the mid-$30s.

Institutional Investor Activity (Q2/Q3 2025):

Significant Increases in Holdings:

Vanguard Group Inc. ($962.8M)
Geode Capital Management LLC ($170.2M)
LSV Asset Management ($120.8M)
Massachusetts Financial Services Co. MA ($77.9M)
Ensign Peak Advisors Inc ($74.4M)
Adage Capital Partners GP L.L.C. ($7.1M)
Lifeworks Advisors LLC ($6.9M)
Hussman Strategic Advisors Inc. ($5.7M)
Eliot Finkel Investment Counsel LLC ($5M)
TrueMark Investments LLC ($4.9M)
Aberdeen Group plc ($4.8M)
Stephens Inc. AR ($4.3M)
AlphaQuest LLC ($3.2M)
OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING Corp Ltd ($3M)
Creative Planning ($2.6M)
New England Asset Management Inc. ($2.5M)
Entropy Technologies LP ($2.4M)
Ethic Inc. ($2.3M)
Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft FI ($2M)
ProShare Advisors LLC ($1.9M)
Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. ($1.8M)
Savoir Faire Capital Management L.P. ($1.7M)
Sigma Planning Corp ($1.7M)
Arvest Bank Trust Division ($1.5M)
Franklin Resources Inc. ($1.5M)
Midwest Trust Co ($879K)
Machina Capital S.A.S. ($575K)
Simplicity Wealth LLC ($547K)
Allworth Financial LP ($538K)
Investors Research Corp ($794K)
Generali Asset Management SPA SGR ($979K)
Catalyst Funds Management Pty Ltd ($264K)
Ceera Investments LLC ($979K)
Versor Investments LP ($1.4M)
Fjarde AP Fonden Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund ($3.9M)
Impax Asset Management Group plc ($955K)
Lecap Asset Management Ltd. ($491K)
Neo Ivy Capital Management ($399K)
Ninety One UK Ltd ($1.4M)
World Investment Advisors ($410K)
West Tower Group LLC ($306K)
Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd ($5.2M)

Significant Decreases in Holdings:

Beutel Goodman & Co Ltd. ($233.7M)
Bank of New York Mellon Corp ($99.3M)
UBS AM ($71.6M)
TD Asset Management Inc. ($27M)
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc. ($15.7M)
Aviva PLC ($13.8M)
Swedbank AB ($13M)
KBC Group NV ($6.2M)
Lbp Am Sa ($5M)
Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH ($4.9M)
AQR Capital Management LLC ($7.3M)
Bank of Montreal Can ($30.5M)
US Bancorp DE ($920K)
Washington Capital Management Inc. ($533K)
Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC ($301K)
Bessemer Group Inc. ($344K)
Blair William & Co. IL ($770K)
USS Investment Management Ltd ($1.7M)

ESG & Reputation

PR Crisis and Legal Scrutiny: The company is embroiled in a severe PR crisis and multiple lawsuits stemming from former VP Martin Bally's racist and disparaging comments about products ("shit for poor people," "bioengineered meat," "3D printed chicken") and employees, as secretly recorded by a whistleblower. Bally was terminated. The Florida Attorney General launched an investigation into product quality related to these claims and the state's ban on lab-grown meat. This incident has generated significant negative public sentiment, including calls for boycotts, and has damaged Campbell's reputation.

Environmental Violations: Campbell's admitted to over 5,400 Clean Water Act violations at its Ohio plant between 2018-2024, involving pollutant discharges into the Maumee River. This carries significant legal, financial, and reputational liabilities.

Positive ESG Recognition: Despite the recent crises, Campbell's was recognized as one of the "Most Ethical Companies across America" in October, for its efforts in reducing food waste, sustainable packaging, hunger relief, and community investment. The company is also emphasizing sustainable sourcing and product reformulation to meet clean-label demand.

Campbells Company is navigating a complex period marked by an aggressive strategic pivot towards snacks and diversification, significant operational cost-saving initiatives, and a commitment to innovation in growing market segments like chilled soup, instant wellness soups, frozen fruit, and frozen pastries. However, these efforts are overshadowed by cautious FY2026 guidance forecasting flat to declining sales and earnings, persistent input cost pressures requiring price increases, and notably, a severe PR crisis and legal/regulatory challenges stemming from an executive's misconduct and environmental violations. While many institutional investors are increasing their stakes, suggesting confidence in the long-term strategy, several major investors have significantly reduced their positions. The company's immediate future hinges on its ability to effectively manage the ongoing PR crisis, address regulatory concerns, successfully execute its cost-saving and growth strategies, and deliver on its upcoming Q1 FY26 earnings (predicted to beat analyst estimates, despite lower guidance). The recent stock underperformance and cautious outlook highlight the uphill battle the company faces in regaining investor confidence amidst these headwinds.